Covid-19: Daily cases suggest that the peak of Omicron is coming early

According to Covid modeling, about 2000 cases are recorded daily in New Zealand, so peak omicrons can be just a few weeks away.

According to experts, the number of cases per day can exceed 20,000, but there is too much uncertainty to know exactly what is ahead.

I saw friday 1929 new community incidents nationwide, The active total will be 9874. Of these, 73 have been hospitalized, with cases occurring in all areas except the West Coast. There were no deaths in recent outbreaks.

Recent modeling performed by a group of Kiwi scholars has shown that infection and hospitalization rates are highly dependent on the number of people taking booster shots.

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* Covid-19: Canterbury may get up to 4000 new cases per day at Omicron Peak

They estimated that the outbreak could be as short as 100 days if following the New York pattern, and nearly twice as long if similar to South Australia. It’s been four weeks since the first community Omicron case was detected in New Zealand.

Modeling also suggested that people who break out of the cycle and re-emerge later can lengthen the tail of the outbreak or cause a second wave.

Professor Sean Henn, one of the report’s modelers, said the outbreak is on track to follow overseas examples such as some Australian states.

He said the spread trajectory peaked in mid-March or late March, with fewer cases in April.

He warned that the variant would not be censored while the case numbers diminished.

“But we will deal with this in June and July, even if there is a short-term and rapid decline. This will not only hit us and disappear.”

New Zealand’s high vaccination and booster immunity rates could “start lowering peaks sooner” than Australia, he said. Conversely, Omicron struck Australia in the summer, but when the respiratory virus spreads rapidly indoors, it would affect New Zealand in the cooler months, he said.

“It may look a little different here. Overseas, the number of cases has dropped sharply, so it has dropped sharply. I think we can see more complicated patterns.

“If you’re more careful, you’ll lower the peak, but spread the outbreak. If you flatten it, you’ll probably be able to push it up in April.”

“In a sense, now is the ideal time to cause this outbreak,” Hendy said, as vaccine protection declined after three or four months.

Covid modeler Rodney Jones said that while a “rough overview” of the outbreak of Omicron was understood, there were too few details that could be accurately modeled.

He said, unlike Delta, Omicron is “ultra-fast, flu-like, and people often don’t know they have it.”

Jones compared New Zealand to Queensland. Queensland has a population of 5.2 million, has one big city, and has eliminated the Delta inside a closed border.

Outbreaks in Queensland began in late December and peaked in late January, with approximately 20,000 infections per day and currently recording approximately 5,000 per day. From 500,000 cases, the state has killed about 450 people and vaccination rates are not as high as in New Zealand.

“Omicron spreads like a wildfire. It’s actually another disease, we’re incredibly well vaccinated and one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. “Jones said.

“It will support us well.”

Professor Peter McIntyre of the University of Otago, a pediatrician and infectious disease expert, said the amount of preventative measures such as public mixing and wearing masks can help determine the length of the outbreak.

Flattening a curve will probably make it longer and longer. It’s not as short and sharp as London or New York. It’s a little trade-off. “

McIntyre said continued protection of the vaccine would weaken the infection again over the course of weeks, but protection against severe illness and death would last longer.

“What we expect from vaccines is personal protection, not getting the vaccines on track. Omicron is another disease.”

Rod Jackson, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Otago, said “no one knows” how long the outbreak will last.

“Covid doesn’t follow the time frame. People definitely scream, but they can’t be sure of the virus.”

Jackson said flattening the curve is essential to reducing hospitalizations and deaths and keeping the business functioning.

“This is just a number game. On average, Omicron isn’t serious. If you’re vaccinated, it’s relatively mild.

“But you can’t burst it, but the downside is that it has a longer duration of continuous restrictions. We have to be cautious and flexible. Once that’s done, we’re ready to respond. Must be. “

McIntyre wasn’t very careful about the virus moving through the community.

“I’m at the end of the optimism. I don’t think it’s that bad with vaccination without Delta. It’s not as bad as some scenarios.

“If you’re under 40 and you’re not in critical health, it’s probably a good idea to take Omicron after the booster.”

He said New Zealand’s main focus should be vaccination.

A recent analysis of New Zealand cases shows that unvaccinated people 27 times more likely to be hospitalized Than those who are fully vaccinated and boosted.

“Unvaccinated or unvaccinated are people welcomed by the ICU. It’s important to help people block hospitals and affect our normal medical services,” McIntyre said. Said.

“When the border is opened, it will no longer be the number of cases, but who the cases are.”

McIntyre said that most people wouldn’t “hit six” if they caught Omicron. Protecting vulnerable and vulnerable people requires a combination of shields, rapid testing, and antivirals, he said.

“We are all moving from a successful exclusion phase. There was a psychology of hunting and annihilation. This is a big psychological change. We need to pivot our thoughts.”