When will the COVID pandemic end?

This is a question that many have asked for almost two years. When will the coronavirus pandemic end?

“Epidemiologically, we don’t know. J. Alexander Navarro, Assistant Director, Center for Medical History, University of Michigan, said:

“Socially, I think we are already at the end of the pandemic. Many states have removed traces of mask obligations. We have people essentially their lives. I’m seeing you continue. “

As of February 16, 2022, approximately 78 million people in the United States were infected with COVID-19, of which 923,067 died. 76% of the US population receives at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)..

Sarah Sawyer, a professor of molecular biology, cell biology, and developmental biology at the University of Colorado at Boulder, may finally see the end thanks to Omicron, a variant of COVID-19 that emerged in November 2021. I agree that I can’t.

“Because so many people have been infected with this wave, it is essential to vaccinate many who have resisted vaccination,” Sawyer says. “That makes it really difficult for the virus to spread in huge waves like Omicron, because there are many resistant people who have gained from previous infections and vaccines.”

Experts predict that more than 70% of people in the United States are currently vaccinated or have recovered from a coronavirus infection, Sawyer says. She adds that an additional bonus for those who are actually infected is to develop a much more sophisticated system of immunity to the virus.

When a virus becomes endemic, a pandemic is generally considered “excessive.”

“When a virus becomes predictable, its pattern, seasonality, the number of people it can infect, and the number of deaths it can cause, it can be said that the virus is endemic. “Masu,” says Sawyer. “That means it has settled into a long-term existence with the population.”

Also, COVID-19 may not be completely gone, but future variants are not expected to be as serious as in the past.

“If I was infected with one variant and another, I went to the emergency room the next day, tickled my throat, went to my son’s baseball game at a grocery store, and that variant would spread better. For a birthday party? “Sawyer says. “Your varieties will spread better. The evolutionary history of the virus shows that the virus is less deadly and is moving towards more infectious …. the virus must make people sick. , It will be more contagious. “

However, there remains the danger of recalling the pandemic before it actually ends.

“I think most people are leaning towards the end of this pandemic, though socially and epidemiologically not,” says Navarro. “There is essentially no backtracking, and today I’m afraid that if another concern arises, I’m not sure if people can go back to masking or implement it, if needed. , A kind of structured closure order. “

During the 1918 flu epidemic, which killed up to 50 million people worldwide, Americans were fed up with detention and prematurely gave up flu precautions. Two more waves of the flu pandemic struck the United States, killing more.

There are some similarities between the COVID-19 and 1918 influenza pandemics, but due to the advanced knowledge and skills that exist today, looking at the past is a good barometer of when this epidemic will end. It is not always the case.

“We know exactly what we should do, which is an advantage that people in the past did not necessarily have,” says Nükhet Varlik, associate professor of history at Rutgers University Newark. .. “We have vaccines. There are public health regulations. We have medical expertise so we know what to do in practice. So compared to past societies, I We really have an unprecedented advantage. We can actually do the right thing. Whether we do the right thing, that’s another question. “

Asking when the pandemic will end is misleading, Valic said, and fuels false hopes rather than focusing on trying to control and mitigate the pandemic.

“It will be endemic, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be pandemic again. So it’s like a dance … it could be pandemic or epidemic or endemic, time It can change with, “says Varlik. “I’m confident that COVID will continue to be prevalent in parts of the world for the foreseeable future … and, of course, travel and other means can spread to other places and countries. That’s all. There really is no way to feel safe from this disease until it is eliminated in the world. “

When epidemiologists declare a pandemic, Navarro says it has a lot to do with how much illness society is willing to accept and endure. COVID-19 becomes like the flu and can kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, primarily those in the vulnerable medical category.

“At some point you have to tell yourself,” you know, I live in the world. There are dangers of infectious diseases, car accidents, etc. in my world. But you can’t allow it to cripple you. Those things were always there, “says Sawyer, a professor of biology. “I certainly don’t want to send the message that this is now another thing people are worried about and need to worry about when it becomes endemic. Instead, get the vaccine and get the flu vaccine. Protect yourself and continue your life. “