Attempting to understand Western Australia’s Omicron waves can seem like an impossible task, as it throws so many different metrics and statistics.
- Statistics show that the number of WA cases is still increasing
- The number of cases is increasing more slowly than SA
- The virus is spreading more rapidly in the area
It’s pretty clear that state experience is very different from most parts of the world, but how different is our destiny?
And what’s ahead when the state goes through the peak of infection?
Here’s a chart that will help you understand everything that’s happening.
WA cases probably haven’t peaked yet
Daily infections from 3,602 on Sunday in the last 5 days Yesterday’s record 5,377..
The numbers are increasing and decreasing, but the infection does not seem to have peaked yet.
Looking at the 7-day average of new cases, this is a preferred indicator for health professionals to smooth out daily fluctuations, indicating that new infections are likely to still be on the rise.
Positive rates for PCR tests also suggest that infections are still increasing, even if the daily number of cases does not reflect that.
But when fewer people take the test, According to epidemiologist Catherine Bennett, it shows more than that.
“Even if few people are being tested, it means that there are a lot of people who should actually be tested and who turn out to be positive,” she said.
Last Tuesday, 11.6% of PCR tests returned positive on average for 7 days.
Yesterday, that number jumped to 16.6 percent.
“When the infection begins to spread to the community, it can reach 20%, but it still seems to be well managed. [in WA]”Professor Bennett said.
In Victoria, these numbers rose to 35%, and in New South Wales, they reached 40%, she said.
Case where WA rises more slowly than SA
Over the past few months, there have been many similarities in how to deal with pandemics between Western Australia and South Australia.
However, the main difference is the immunization rate of each state’s population as the number of cases increases.
In SA, just under 80% of the population were double vaccinated, and few were vaccinated three times when the first case was recorded.
Currently, twice the dose rate of WA is over 95%, and almost three-quarters of people over the age of 16 receive booster shots.
Looking at the number of new infections per 1,000 people since each state recorded more than 100 new cases, we can see how much difference vaccination makes.
In general, WA outbreaks grew slower than South Australian outbreaks, taking into account population differences, but WA now has more new cases per 1,000 people each day than SA recorded at the same time. I’m recording.
Hospitalization is also delayed. It took up to 5 days for SA to hospitalize more than 10 people after 100 marks, but it took 9 people for WA.
Entering the ICU tells another story. There are 15 days between 100 new cases and double-digit ICU patients in SA, but WA has not yet reached that mark in 27 days.
It’s hard to say how much of this depends solely on vaccination rates, but experts say that high booster dose rates prevent many Western Australians from getting sick as they would otherwise. I agree to be there.
The number of PCR tests follows a weekly predictable pattern
At the beginning of each week, it may be tempting to take a sigh of relief, as the number of cases appears to be declining, or at least plateau.
However, it seems that it is due to the fact that few people take the test.
Looking at the average number of tests, people are most likely to get a PCR on Monday or Tuesday, with the lowest tests on Saturday and Sunday.
In part, it’s because many test centers are closed or the time is significantly reduced over the weekend.
Health Minister Amber Jade Sanderson said yesterday that a few days after the number of cases had peaked, it meant that new infections could double in the next few days.
Of course, it’s impossible to get a complete picture of these patterns because we don’t know when people will have a rapid antigen test at home.
The virus is spreading more rapidly in the area
Last week, the number of active cases in metropolitan areas increased by 80%.
However, in the Kimberley region of the state, there was a growth of 1,767 percent from nine active cases to 168.
This can cause problems, given the third lowest double dose rate in the area. In the state it is 82% and many are not protected by booster immunity.
The virus also spread rapidly in Great Southern, jumping from 30 activities last week to 187 yesterday.
How is this compared to modeling?
Frustratingly, we really don’t know.
The government has refused to publish a much more than five-page overview of its modeling. This provides some details, but not all you need to see how the state is tracking.
“I’m pretty happy with the modeling we released,” Sanderson said yesterday when asked about releasing more information.
“I don’t think publishing large amounts of data will necessarily help our plans and approaches.
This is an issue flagged by both the opposition and the head of the Western Australia Chapter of the Australian Medical Association.
Mark Duncan Smith said last week, “Knowledge is power, knowledge is only available to them, and they are the only ones who can actually access modeling, so no one else can comment that is part of the government’s power game. “.
Over time, you’ll know if WA is really tracking as expected.
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