Concerns about self-satisfaction with the spread of BA.2: “Need to be vigilant”

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BA.2, a subvariant of the Omicron strain, First detected in Australia In January.



Early report from Denmark, Issued a warning to other parts of the world, shortly before the subvariants were already highly transmissible BA.1. In less than two months, BA.2 is the predominant variant in at least 18 countries and is already Up to 25% of COVID cases In Australia.


The rapid spread is due to the increased transfer coefficient of the subvariants, and BA.2 is estimated as follows. Up to 7 times more contagious It is up to 3 times more contagious than the original strain, BA.1.


This means that after overcoming the Omicron storm earlier this year, the number of cases in New South Wales increased again, with 30,402 new infections recorded on Wednesday, March 16. Other areas appear to follow a similar trajectory. Victoria recently recorded 9426 cases, but Queensland (6136), Tasmania (1859) and Northern Territory (251) are also on the rise.


Meanwhile, Western Australia is also experiencing a big wave, with BA.2 currently about. 1/4 of new cases..


Based on what is known about subvariants so far, Professor Adrian Esterman, chairman of the University of South Australia’s Biostatistics Foundation and former World Health Organization (WHO) epidemiologist, said the number of cases increased. “It’s not surprising at all.”


“I think there is no doubt that BA.2 will increase the number of cases,” said Professor Esterman. newsGP..


“It’s much more contagious than BA.1. In fact, it’s reaching the level of measles, the most contagious disease we know.


“So I don’t think this is a one-time event. [continue to] See Increasing the number of cases.


Professor Estherman is one of many experts making similar predictions, including Jero Enweimer, Commander of COVID-19 in Victoria.


Although it is difficult to predict the prevalence of BA.2 in Australia due to increased home testing and lack of extensive genomic sequencing, Victorian wastewater sequencing has at least half of all current cases. It has been shown to be a subvariant.


In New South Wales, UNSW Associate Professor James Wood of the Graduate School of Public Health and Community Medicine makes similar predictions. Infectious disease modelers predict that BA.2 may already account for more than 50% of cases in the state and may increase to 90% by the end of March.


The surge in the number of cases in which Professor Estherman appears to be showing a new wave has raised particular concerns, as most states and territories have significantly relaxed public health measures.


Self-satisfaction with booster intake further increases the risk, with more than 30% of eligible Australians not yet receiving a third dose. Report Of GPs who have to throw away thousands of doses due to lack of demand.


Professor Estherman says the general attitude of most state and territory governments seems to signal the public that they can revive normally.


He states this is “to some extent true”, but thanks to the vaccines and treatments available, we believe it is only the beginning of the end of the pandemic.


“But the problem is that we’re not over,” said Professor Estherman.


“And tomorrow, a new variant may emerge that is twice as deadly as Omicron.


“Therefore, we need to be aware that another new variant can hit us, and if necessary, we need to slap public health measures absolutely quickly.”


Temporarily, epidemiologists believe that a fourth dose should be considered further for those who are most likely to develop severe illness.


“We also need to be very careful about the fact that opening up with such a high number of cases increases the risk of the elderly and the underlying health conditioner, as there is little protection against infection,” said Professor Esterman. Stated.


“I think we need to take a fourth dose to really vulnerable people as soon as possible, and ATAGI is currently discussing it.”


Monitoring of BA.2 revealed that the gene sequence of the subvariant was different from that of BA.1 and contained some amino acids of the spike protein.It seems to have again Growth benefits According to WHO, above BA.1 it is more contagious.


A Preprint survey What has been done in Japan also suggests that BA.2 can cause more serious illness. Researchers who infected hamsters with BA.1 and BA.2 found that subvariants were more pathogenic, and researchers infected with subvariants developed more lung damage and weight loss. ..


but, Real world data There is no difference in severity from Denmark, the United Kingdom and South Africa.


Professor Estherman states that this may be due to people who are already immune to widespread vaccination.


“What we see overall is that BA.2 is actually similar to BA.1 in terms of its severity. Very similar admission rates, very similar ICU admissions. We see rates, and very similar mortality rates, “he said.


However, this is not always the case.


Professor Esterman predicts that the higher the transmission rate, the more people will be hospitalized.


“It’s just a number game,” he said.


“But, of course, the other thing that’s happening is that more and more young people are infected. Currently, the majority of infected people are school children and people in their teens and early twenties. That is reducing the hospitalization rate.


“Therefore, hospitalizations will not increase dramatically, but I think they will stabilize or increase slightly. At this point, it’s not too bad as states and territories can actually manage it.”


Concerns remain with the long COVID, but general practice is expected to bear the brunt.


Professor Estherman states that managing this risk relies on the government taking a wise approach and considering reintroduction of specific precautions as needed. However, he fears that the politicization of COVID-19 will be an obstacle.


“Most of the population has COVID-19 tooth illness-I knew I was,” he said.


“And we are looking at governments governed by focus groups. For example, last year, daily press conferences were held in all states and territories, attended by the Chief of Public Health. How often now. Are you watching it?


“And the reason is probably that the government is no longer listening to public health advice.


“That’s why we have to be vigilant, and wise state and territory governments [need to] Take all these measures, [ready] We will notify you immediately to put them back in place. “



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BA.2 COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) Omicron subvariant