The number of cases of COVID-19 is increasing rapidly overseas. Next is America?

Cases of COVID-19 have declined in California and across the country to levels not seen before the nasty delta mutations settled last summer. The face mask requirement has been lifted. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s risk map has changed from red and orange aposematism to reassuring yellow and green.

So why are so many health professionals anxious?

It’s been three years since it made our lives worse, but there are annoying signs on the horizon that it could be a short grace from the virus. Cases are skyrocketing across Europe and Asia. BA.2A more contagious subline of the hyperinfectious Omicron variant that sent a surge of cases in winter. And that new subvariant, called “Stealth Omicron,” is steadily taking hold in the United States.

“We definitely need to worry,” said Dr. Eric Topol, Executive Vice President and Professor of Molecular Medicine at Scripps Research in La Jolla. “We see a huge surge here.”

“After a few weeks of decline, reported cases of COVID-19 are increasing globally again, especially in parts of Asia,” the World Health Organization Secretary said Thursday, due to a decline in tests. “The case we are seeing is just the tip of the iceberg.”

“The pandemic isn’t over,” said WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Gebreez.

WHO’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove has announced that the timing of the spread of the BA.2 variant is global, just as public health measures such as face mask requirements and crowd restrictions have been eased in many countries, especially Europe. I think it has brought about a positive turnaround.

She misunderstood that the misleading message from the government and public health authorities was “false information that Omicron is mild, false information that the pandemic is over, this is the last variant we have to deal with. I warned that it led to “information”.

What does this mean for us here in California and other countries? Topol and other experts have been plagued by California and other states loosening pandemic restrictions in recent weeks, with vaccination rates higher than in other countries experiencing a surge in infections in the United States. Low boost immunity. In the past, outbreaks in the United States followed a surge in foreign incidents in just a few weeks.

Consider comparing with countries that have significant cases. Britain and Germany in Europe, South Korea and Vietnam in Asia. According to New York Times data, the proportion of fully vaccinated population was 74% in the United Kingdom and 76% in Germany, with both countries reporting an increase of 58%. South Korea is 86% fully vaccinated and 62% boosted, Vietnam is 80% fully vaccinated and 44% boosted.

The same data show that 65% of the United States is fully vaccinated and 29% are boosted.

“This is here near you,” Topol said. “It’s just a matter of time.”

It is already happening with at least one indicator that is considered an early indicator of viral activity. Of 485 Drainage system monitored by CDC Nationwide to check for COVID-19 virus, 193 reported an increase last week. In California, it included a system that served San Benito County, Los Angeles, and Ventura.

Dr. Sarah Cody, Health Officer of Santa Clara County, said BA.2 has already appeared in wastewater from the northern end of the county, but virus infection levels remain low throughout the county and cases reverse the downward trend. I haven’t let you.

“It’s not pushing up the overall level,” Cody said. “I don’t know why, but it’s not. But we’re watching it very carefully here and elsewhere.”

Dr. John Swartsburg, an emeritus professor of infectious diseases and vaccines at the University of California, Berkeley, said the BA.2 subvariant was 30% more contagious than the BA.1 omicron subvariant, which caused a record winter case surge. He said he was highly sexual.Report from England Subvariant growth is consistent with the increase in cases, showing that BA.2 jumped from 52% of cases on February 20th to 83% on March 6th.

Subvariants have not yet reached these levels in the United States. However, Swartzberg said it grew rapidly from 4% on February 19th to 7% on February 26th, 14% on March 5th and 23% on March 12th.

“We’re about doubling here every week, which means that if this continues, it should be the major variant we’ll be dealing with in the United States within two weeks,” he said. “We plan to work with mutants that are about 30% more contagious, if not earlier, within a few weeks.”