Climate change is exacerbating the allergic season

This article was originally published by conversation..

Allergic patients, please be careful. According to new research, the pollen season will be much longer and more intense due to climate change.

Our latest research shows that the United States faces Up to 200 percent increase Throughout this century’s pollen, if the world continues to produce high rates of carbon dioxide emissions from cars, power plants, and other sources. In that scenario, the spring pollen season usually begins up to 40 days ago and lasts up to 19 days longer than today.

As atmosphere the scientist, We study how the atmosphere and climate affect trees and plants.Most studies focus on pollen as a whole, but we Dozens of types of grass and trees And how their pollen affects regions throughout the United States in different ways. For example, species such as oak and cypress show the largest increase in pollen in the northeast, but allergens increase almost everywhere, affecting human health and the economy.

If your head is throbbing just thinking about this, there’s some good news, at least in advance knowing when the pollen waves will come. We are working on developing more accurate local pollen predictions using the model in this study.

Let’s start with the basics. Pollen (grains like dust produced by grass and plants) contains male genetic material for plant reproduction.

How much pollen is produced depends on how the plant grows. Rising global temperatures promote plant growth in many areas, which affects pollen production. But temperature is only part of the equation.We found it Larger driver of pollen increase Increases carbon dioxide emissions.

Higher temperatures prolong the growing season and give the plant more time to release pollen and propagate. Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, promotes photosynthesis, which can cause plants to grow larger and produce more pollen. It has been found that carbon dioxide levels can have a much greater effect than temperature on future pollen growth.

Instead of treating all pollens the same, as in many studies in the past, we looked at 15 pollens.

Pollination usually begins at the end of winter and in the lush deciduous trees of spring. Morus alba, birch and oak are the top three deciduous trees that cause allergies, but there are also mulberry. After that, grass comes out in the summer, and ragweed comes out at the end of the summer. In the southeast, evergreens such as mountain cedar and juniper (Cupressaceae) begin pollinating in January. In Texas, “sugi fever” is equivalent to hay fever.

In the northeast, the pollen season of many allergen trees Overlap It is increasing as temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions rise. For example, oak trees first released pollen, then birch pollinated. Now their pollen season is blurry together.

In general, pollen seasons vary more in northern states than in southern states due to the higher temperature rises in the northern regions.

In the southeastern region, including Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, pollen and weed pollen are expected to increase in the future. In the Pacific Northwest, the pollen season of alder is early, so it is possible to see the peak of the pollen season a month ago.

Currently, most pollen predictions provide only very broad estimates.Part of the problem is that there aren’t many Observatory For pollen counts: Of these stations, less than 100 are distributed nationwide. There is nothing in Michigan where we live.

Measuring different types of pollen is a very labor-intensive process. As a result, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current forecast. They may be largely based on what the station has observed in the past and the weather forecast.

Integrating our model into the prediction framework has the potential to provide more targeted pollen predictions across the country.

You can estimate where the trees are from satellite data and ground surveys. We also know how temperature affects pollen release, what is called its biophenology. Use that information to understand how much pollen penetrates into the air using meteorological factors such as wind, relative humidity, and precipitation, and show how pollen is blown off in an atmospheric model. You can create real-time forecasts.

With all that information, you can find out where pollen is in space and time, so people dealing with allergies can see what’s happening in their area.

We are currently National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration A lab on how to integrate this information into tools for air quality prediction.

There are still some unknowns regarding long-term pollen prediction. For example, scientists do not fully understand why plants produce more pollen in years than in other years. There is no good way to include that variability in your model. It is also unclear how plants react when carbon dioxide levels pass through the roof. In addition, ragweed and residential trees are difficult to capture. Few ragweed studies show where these plants grow in the United States, but they can be improved.

In the 2021 survey Whole pollen season Was already about 20 days longer in North America Pollen concentration has increased by about 21% since 1990.

Elevated pollen levels have a much broader effect than some snuffs and headaches.Seasonal allergies affect About 30 percent of the U.S. populationAnd they have economic implications, including: Medical bills When Holiday.. Over the next few years, these effects will be even stronger.