Previous, longer pollen season due to climate change that is expected to affect allergies and asthma

When temperatures rise as part of climate change, pollen seasons will be earlier and longer by the end of the century, affecting the outcome of allergies and asthma. Nature Communications..

“Pollen-induced respiratory allergies affect up to 30% of the world’s population, and increased pollen emissions associated with climate change can exacerbate these allergies.” Yingxiao Zhang, A research assistant at the University of Michigan’s Graduate School of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering told Healio.

“Our work was designed to better understand how pollen emissions can be better simulated and how they can change in the future,” Zhang said.

Work together Allison L. Steiner, doctorate, Zhang, a professor of climate, space science and engineering, has developed a model of how to predict. Changes in temperature and precipitation It affects the production of the 13 most common pollens between 2081 and 2100.

According to a model based on US data from 1995 to 2014, the pollen season begins up to 40 days ago due to expected temperature changes of 4 ° K to 6 ° K and lasts up to 19 days longer.

These temperature changes, and the expected increase in daily spring and winter precipitation by up to 30%, change the maximum daily pollen emissions by –35% to 40%, but with bioseasonology. Changes in pollen production with temperature increase in total annually Pollen emissions are 16% to 40%.

Specifically, researchers predict that temperatures in the south will rise and precipitation in the southwest will decrease. They also expect a 30% increase in maximum pollen emissions and a 10% increase in maximum emissions. Ragweed pollen emissions From north to south.

Surprisingly, Zhang also found that “in areas rich in pollen-releasing trees, individual species of trees can overlap and be released at the same time, increasing the total pollen concentration.” It states.

However, when researchers factor in the expected increase in carbon dioxide by the end of the century, they predict that maximum daily pollen production will increase by up to 200% and total annual pollen emissions will increase by 250%. Did.

“In the future, carbon dioxide may be a more important factor than the temperature that increases pollen production in high carbon dioxide emissions scenarios,” Zhang said.

However, researchers note that predictions of the impact of carbon dioxide on pollen production are largely uncertain, with carbon dioxide increasing by only 50 ppm compared to the 700 ppm forecast over the last 50 years. did.

The model also determined that changes in land cover affect the distribution of pollen emitters, but researchers say these effects are relatively small (<10%) compared to the effects of climate and carbon dioxide on pollen production. Is writing.

Researchers continued that additional climate change and anthropogenic effects would alter the distribution of plant communities and further affect pollen emissions.

For example, this model reduces tree coverage in the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest highlands, predicting higher tree coverage in the central United States and the Mississippi River valley at the expense of crop coverage.

“As the pollen season gets longer and the amount of pollen increases, more people become more sensitive to pollen, and those who are already allergic to pollen can get worse,” Zhang said.

Researchers are now working with the Institute in Boulder, Colorado to incorporate a pollen model into the Institute’s air quality prediction system to predict daily pollen counts in different regions.

“We would like to develop more models to better explain year-to-year fluctuations or pollen volume changes in order to improve climate sensitivity,” Zhang said.

reference:

For more information:

Yingxiao Zhang You can contact us at [email protected].

perspective

Back to top

Mark E. Rosenberg, MD, PhD

These are interesting and important results. The findings are consistent with previous models and data that predict the potential increasing impact of climate change on allergies. That’s right Rising temperatures and rising carbon dioxide promote early and long-term plant and pollen production.

In addition, higher temperatures and longer pollen seasons are expected to increase exposure to allergens, which are expected to exacerbate allergic sensitization and redness of the disease. These factors have additive effects on other factors of climate change, especially air pollution associated with the increase in ozone, and collectively exacerbate the spread of allergies. The predicted model supports the new climate change hypothesis as a contributor to allergic epidemics.

Physicians need to be aware that the epidemic of allergies is widespread and consider ways to reduce allergen sensitization and exposure. Traditionally, allergy shots have been used to reduce sensitization. Inducing immune tolerance to aero and food allergens is an active area of ​​research. Based on these findings, physicians should consider recommending ways to reduce exposure early in the typical pollen season.

The health effects of climate change are enormous in terms of loss of life, poor quality of life and spending. Health care professionals and our professional organizations have a duty to set an example in order to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions.

For example, hospitals need to identify energy expenditures, emissions, and other practices that contribute to climate change. Although it may seem small, changing hospital menu items that focus on employee and guest lean meat consumption can significantly reduce the facility’s greenhouse gases.

As illustrated in the results of this study, there is a need to deepen research into the health effects of climate change, including its effects on allergic diseases.

Mark E. Rosenberg, MD, PhD

Dean of Faculty of Allergy and Immunology, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital

Director, Cincinnati Eosinophil Disease Center

Disclosure: Rothenberg reports the role of consultants for Adare / Ellodi Pharma, Allakos, AstraZeneca, Celgene, ClostraBio, GlaxoSmithKline, Guidepoint, PalmOne, Serpin Pharma and SpoonGuru. Holds equity interests in Allakos, ClostraBio, PalmOne, Serpin Pharma and SpoonGuru. Loyalty from Reslizumab (Cinqair, Teva Pharmaceuticals), Pediatric Eosinophilic Esophagitis Severity Module Version 2.0 (Mapi Research Trust) and UpToDate (Wolters Kluwer). Invents a patent owned by the Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center.

Add topics to email alerts

Receive an email when a new article is posted

Please enter your email address to receive emails when new articles are posted ..

“data-action =” subscribe “> Subscribe

The request could not be processed. Please try again later.If you continue to have this issue, please contact us [email protected]..

Return to Healio

Climate Change and Health Resource Center