In the decline of COVID-19 cases in the Boston area, wastewater data sends a mixed signal

Anyone looking carefully at wastewater data noticed a change last week: the first increase in northeastern COVID-19 prevalence since late December 2021. It increased by 24% compared to the previous week. Then, new data on Wednesday showed that the number of regions has declined slightly again.

This is a mixed signal at yet another uncertain moment in the pandemic.Although the number of cases is small, CDC estimates the more infectious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron. Currently dominant in the northeast.. Many experts attributed the increase in wastewater to BA.2.

And — for the first time in two years — there are no COVID patients in the ICU at Tufts Medical Center in Boston.

“Today is the first day since the pandemic began. Specifically, on March 23, 2020, when we accepted our first COVID ICU patients, we started the day with zero COVID ICU patients,” said the hospital. Epidemiologist Shira Doron said Thursday.

Delon said caution should be exercised over the recent surge in wastewater levels, but experts are not overly concerned.

“We are always cautious and optimistic,” Delon said. “We will always hesitate to declare the end of the pandemic and the worst behind us, I think more forever.”

Dr. Matthew Fox, a professor of epidemiology and global health at Boston University, states that the increase in Boston wastewater follows a pattern similar to the increase in cases of BA.2 in Europe.

“We’re seeing a number of Boston wastewater cases, or Boston’s wastewater forecasts are starting to recover, suggesting that they’re probably being partially driven by this new variant,” Fox said. Stated.

“For now, I don’t think it’s a cause of panic, because we’re in a much more mature epidemic stage than before,” Fox added. The point where future waves are not as serious as previous waves. “

Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics, even after detecting an increase Listed in a Twitter thread Due to the increased wastewater, the virus concentration remains at 3% of the peak level of the Omicron surge.

The Massachusetts Public Health Service uses wastewater surveillance as an early indicator of COVID-19 prevalence in the community, usually leading the trend in case numbers by days or weeks.

According to Fox, the amount of viral infection at this stage of a pandemic depends on three variables: human-to-human interactions, vaccines and procedures to reduce the spread of masking and herd immunity that depend on previous infections. To do.

Massachusetts has a highly vaccinated population, but residents are beginning to gather more often. Fox warns that cases will begin to recur due to the prevalence of more infectious variants.

However, many people with immunodeficiency and those living with chronic illnesses and disabilities are afraid to be vigilant. Brit Dorton, 25, who lives in Chicago and suffers from Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome, uses her Twitter account to think about people with disabilities and ask people to keep wearing masks.

“It’s a very small act, and I don’t know what to say to those who have the reaction that they don’t care about our lives,” she told GBH News.

Dorton works from home and rarely goes out. She says it’s important to keep an eye on other people at greater risk, even if people are tired of isolating or limiting socialization. I did.

“It’s really a matter of life and death for us,” she said.

Even in less severe mutants, COVID-19 carries the risk of death or long-term health problems. Delon pointed out that the majority of COVID-19 currently occurring in the United States is the more contagious Omicron.

“It’s declining, flowing, and increasing and decreasing, whether it’s weeks, months, years, or even decades, can be expected indefinitely in the future,” Delon said. “It’s hard to say.”