According to data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, levels of coronavirus found at two New Orleans wastewater sites have risen by nearly 700% in the last two weeks. Although Louisiana’s virus levels remain low, recent data show that infectious disease specialists have been vigilant after reducing cases and relaxing restrictions over the course of several weeks.
Infectious disease epidemiologist Susan Hasig said: At Tulane University.
Elevated wastewater levels occur among other early signs of more infections. The state has reported 604 cases in the last 7 days, an increase of about 33% compared to about 450 cases last week. Using home tests that have not been reported to civil servants may increase the number of undetected cases.
In addition, hospitalization increased by 12 patients last Friday, decreased slightly over the weekend, and increased again on Monday and Tuesday, bringing the total to 63 patients in Louisiana hospitals.
The rise in COVID across the country and in Louisiana is partially driven by Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant, which is estimated to be about 50% to 60% more infectious than the original Omicron variant, which surged this winter. .. As of April 2, 84% of cases of COVID in the southwest and 43% of cases in Louisiana.
It’s too early to determine if the rise will continue, but health professionals are closely watching other states where increasing cases and hospitalizations are seen. The five states with the highest 7-day increase in cases are in the northeast. According to the CDC..New hospitalization Also, they are starting to sneak up in the area.. Philadelphia officials have recently reinstated their obligations on masks because of a rapidly increasing number of infectious diseases.
“Part of what we can and probably do is to monitor what is happening in the northeast from a timeline perspective,” Hasig said. “They are rational predictors and are usually about 3-4-5 weeks ahead of us through most of these waves.”
New Orleans wastewater reflects viral particles released from saliva, urine, and feces, and coronavirus levels have been high since the CDC began tracking in mid-February. This increase is reflected in the samples taken at the end of March and is steadily increasing until April 9, the latest data available.
Wastewater sampling has been used since the early days of the pandemic, but has emerged as an early warning system on which the federal government relies as part of the path to a more normal life in recent months. Samples from two wastewater treatment facilities at the Sewerage and Waterworks Bureau on the east and west banks are collected daily and sent to the CDC. About 65% of about 450 wastewater sites nationwide have recorded increases in COVID levels over the past two weeks. More collection points from Louisiana are planned, according to officials from the Louisiana Health Department.
Not all increases recorded by the CDC can be interpreted as specific signs of future surges, said Aaron Bivins, co-founder of COVID-19 Wastewater-Based Epidemiology and assistant professor of civil environmental engineering at LSU. .. The importance of the percentage increase depends on the baseline from the previous week, and the Louisiana increase is still below the 1,000% increase threshold that Vivins considers to be vigilant when virus levels are low.
Still, “my antennae are up,” Bibins said. “There is no doubt that this trend change is a concern.”
According to Bibins, consistently rising COVID wastewater levels over the next few weeks will require risk management measures such as wearing masks and reconsidering whether to eat out. The conflict between Easter weekends, increased infections with the French Quarter Fest and Jazz Fest, and fewer tests available as federal funding runs out can lead to more infections.
Hasig pointed out that residents infected during the Omicron surge are likely to still receive some protection. However, it declines after about 3 months and almost half of Louisiana remains unvaccinated.
“It probably gives us a little buffer, but it starts to disappear as soon as May begins,” Hasig said.
Staff writer Jeff Adelson contributed to this report.
