Widespread use of face masks may reduce the’R’ number and prevent a second COVID-19 wave: a survey

Modeling studies from the University of Cambridge and Greenwich suggest that the use of face masks throughout the population keeps the “replication number” of coronaviruses below 1.0 and, when combined with lockdown, prevents further wave movements of the virus. doing.

The survey shows that the lockdown alone does not stop the revival of SARS-CoV-2, even if it is homemade. mask Limited effectiveness can dramatically reduce infection rates when worn by sufficient people, whether or not they exhibit symptoms.

Researchers are looking for information campaigns that appeal to our altruistic dimension in both rich and developing countries. “My facemask protects you, your facemask protects me.” The survey results are Minutes A of the Royal Society..

“Our analysis supports the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the general public,” Richard Stat, a member of the team at Cambridge’s Department of Plant Science that typically models the spread of crop diseases. Said the doctor.

“When the widespread use of face masks by the general public, combined with physical distance and some blockade, it provides an acceptable way to manage pandemics and resume economic activity long before an effective vaccine is available. May offer.”

Dr. Renata Retkute, co-author and Cambridge team member, said: “The British government can help by giving clear instructions on how to make homemade masks and use them safely.”

“There is little to lose from the widespread adoption of face masks, but the benefits can be substantial.”

The new coronavirus is transmitted via airborne droplets containing SARS-CoV-2 particles and is exhaled by infected individuals, especially when talking, coughing, or sneezing.

In a recent study, Cambridge researchers sought to correlate dynamics of interpersonal diffusion with population-level models and evaluate different scenarios that combined face mask adoption and lockdown periods.

Modeling involved stages of infection and transmission through the surface as well as air. The researchers also examined negative aspects of mask use, such as increased facial contact.

The duplicate or’R’ number (the number of people an infected individual passes the virus on) should stay below 1.0 to slow down the pandemic.

The study found that wearing a mask whenever a person was in a public place was two times more effective in reducing R than wearing a mask after symptoms appeared.

In all modeling scenarios, the regular use of face masks in more than 50% of the population reduces the spread of COVID-19 to less than 1.0, below R, flattening the wave of future illness and ensuring tight lockdown. It has become possible.

The spread of the virus was further reduced as more people adopted the mask in public. The combination of 100% mask and on/off lockdown prevented further disease recurrence for the 18 months required for vaccine potential.

While the model is better and faster, the policy of adoption of a facemask as a whole prevents the second wave even if it is not triggered until 120 days after the epidemic begins (defined as the first 100 cases). Suggests that you can.

The team investigated various effects of face masks. Earlier studies have shown that even cotton-made T-shirts and homemade masks made from cloth can be 90% effective in preventing infections.

This study suggests that the total population wearing 75% effective masks may result in a very high “R” number of 4.0. Britain was close to this before Blockade-Reduces below 1.0 without using Lockdown.

In fact, a mask that captures only 50% of the expelled droplets provides a “population-level benefit”, even though it quadruples the wearer’s own risk of contamination with frequent facial contact and mask adjustments. (A very unlikely scenario).

Researchers have found that crude homemade masks mainly reduce the spread of the disease by capturing the wearer’s own viral particles and inhaling them directly into the fabric, whereas inhaled air often inhales around the exposed sides of the mask. Point out.

“There is a general perception that you are wearing mask “This means that you consider other people to be at risk. In fact, wearing a mask protects them mainly from others,” said John Corbin, co-author of the University of Greenwich. “

“The message needs to be clear, as there are cultural and political issues that can prevent wearing face masks. My mask protects you and your mask protects me. To do.”

“In the UK, the approach to face masks is Public transport.. The most effective way to resume everyday life is to encourage everyone to wear some kind of mask when in public.

Professor Christian Gilligan, co-author of the Epidemiology and Modeling Group at the Faculty of Plant Sciences in Cambridge, adds: “These messages say that home-made masks are a cheap and effective technology, although the disease is widespread in developing countries and many are poor.”