XE will arrive in New Zealand shortly – what threat does it pose?

new Omicron subvariant XE confirmed in Australia – And scientists say it’s only a matter of time before entering New Zealand.

However, despite the worldwide attention surrounding it, one expert is not convinced that XE poses the threat of our next big Covid-19.

First discovered in the UK in mid-January, the XE is a hybrid of the original Omicron subtype BA.1 and the current mainstream BA.2.

This is an example of a recombinant. The virus can exchange genetic material to produce offspring and can occur in people who are infected with two strains at the same time.

Currently, more than 1000 XEs have been recorded in the United Kingdom, and have been detected in Thailand, India, Israel, and New South Wales, where Australia first confirmed XD or so-called XD last week. “Deltacron” recombinant.

Yesterday, traces of wastewater from Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city, were confirmed.

Amid concerns that XE could be more contagious, Health Director Dr. Ashley Bloomfield said that if XE arrives here, authorities need more stringent rules to control its characteristics and the number of cases. He said he needed to find out.

Earlier modeling suggested that XE could provide a slight growth benefit, but Dr. David Welch, a computational biologist at the University of Auckland, beats BA.2 in subtypes. He said he looked like he had no legs.

“There is still no evidence that it has significant communication benefits-and the latest estimates show that it may be 10 percent under BA.2,” Welch said. ..

“To survive, it must be at least equivalent to BA.2.”

Other potentially widespread subvariants, such as Delta AY.4.2, were of concern when they popped up, Welch said.

“But AY.4.2 didn’t look like it actually took off anywhere except in the UK. I put the XE in the same basket,” he said.

“Maybe it has a local advantage, but it’s certainly not the next delta or omicron.”

Dr. Jema Geogegan, a virologist at the University of Otago, said the reduced surveillance makes it difficult to know how risky it is.

“For now, XE seems to remain at a relatively low level in the background of the very popular BA.2,” she said.

“But these days, the sequences in the UK have been significantly reduced, making it more difficult to see what they really are.”

Dr. Jema Geogegan, a virologist at the University of Otago.Photo / Attached

Will XE appear here soon?

“As long as it continues to circulate in the UK, and as long as it seems to be so even at low levels, I expect us to do so,” Welch said.

“There is still a lot of movement here and there.”

Welch felt that the bigger question was whether he detected it early enough here.

Dr. Joep de Ligt, Leader of ESR Bioinformatics and Genomics, said plans are underway to improve the capabilities and capabilities of the sequence.

“This includes ordering most of the arrivals that test positive during self-quarantine, and warns you as soon as possible about what will come into the country.”

While scientists were still learning about XE, deLigt said such hybrid strains could cause problems.

“There are concerns about some of the mutants that cause more serious illness, such as Delta, and some that can carry some of the mutants that can spread very rapidly,” he said. Said.

“Such” both worst “recombinants can easily overwhelm the healthcare system if public health measures such as masking and vaccines are not implemented. “

Welch added that it was a new variant that seemed to come out of nowhere that changed the course of the pandemic.

“Alpha, Delta, BA.1 and BA.2 were all like that,” he said.

“I think XE or another recombinant has that potential, but it’s a big new wave because they’re recombinants of mutants that are already circulating and now have fairly widespread immunity. Is difficult to cause. “

As such, he also did not see the new Omicron subtypes BA.4 and BA.5 as game changers.

“These improvements are important in that they allow the virus to push a little farther than other methods, but they do not, by themselves, cause major new outbreaks.”

Yesterday, the Ministry of Health confirmed that there were 13,636 new community cases of Covid-19 and an additional 30 reported virus-related deaths. Yesterday’s numbers covered a 48-hour period as there were no updates on Good Friday.

-Jamie Morton, The New Zealand Herald