The first BA.4 case detected could lead to tens of thousands of reinfections in New South Wales

NSW Health has not yet published the number of COVID-19 reinfections recorded, but several other states have already published that number. Between late December last year and the end of March 2022, there were approximately 10,000 known COVID-19 reinfections in Victoria. The Northern Territory has recorded 28 reinfections.

The federal government has not collected data on COVID-19 reinfection. It also does not collect Western Australian and Queensland health authorities.

“Reinfection will be commonplace, but the combination of innate immunity and vaccination provides strong protection, so repeated infections are milder each time,” said James McCaw, an epidemiology and mathematical biologist at the University of Melbourne. I hope to be. “

More than 218,500 reinfections have been recorded in New York. This is about 4 percent of all cases. Data released by UK health authorities at the end of March showed that if Omicron was the predominant mutant during the delta wave, it was 10 times more likely to be re-infected. To date, nearly one million reinfections have been reported in the United Kingdom.

McCaw said NSW is likely to have recorded tens of thousands of reinfections, based on foreign figures.

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“We are most likely to be re-infected and re-infected with a new version of the virus that is immunologically different,” McCaw said. “It will happen more and more because it is the only way the virus establishes itself. It will last forever because of reinfection.”

Alicia and Andy Jones, along with their two children, Amelia and Miles, caught COVID-19 at the peak of last year’s delta wave.

“I was really sick with a lot of brain fog, nausea, coughing, and really terrible fatigue,” she said. “Both kids were fine, but at the expense of the stress (almost a month) trapped inside.”

A few months later, the virus attacked again, but the symptoms were mild. Jones and her daughter caught the virus a second time as Omicron’s BA.2 wave was sweeping the state.

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“I had a cough and a headache, but by the fourth day I felt better,” she said.

McCaw emphasized that COVID-19 is currently on the “road to fashion”.

However, he emphasized that Australia experienced a very different version of the pandemic than any other country.

“Omicron was really our first exposure. In other parts of the world, almost everyone [had COVID-19] Once from another stock, “he said.

“The intrinsic severity of Omicron is still very serious. The reason we didn’t cause a catastrophe is due to the vaccine. Reinfection is standard, but our body has an immune response. I hope the reinfection is not so serious because of the many aspects. “

“We are all continuously and regularly exposed and re-infected throughout our lives.”

However, BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants can give different results.

In its latest COVID-19 surveillance report released Thursday, NSW reported the first BA.4 case in a person who was recently in South Africa.

Wood predicts that reinfections in New South Wales are concentrated in unvaccinated individuals, with a significant proportion of children under the age of 12 with low levels of vaccination. Said.

“I think even if you get vaccinated with two doses, you still have a lot of immunity,” Wood said.

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