Climate change predicted to accelerate the spread of the virus from animals to humans

According to modeling studies, animal migration due to rising global temperatures can cause the transmission of thousands of new viruses across species over the next 50 years, many of which pose a risk to human health.

In a 2 ° C global warming scenario, there will be more than 300,000 first encounters between species, and by 2070 more than 15,000 cross-species transmission events of at least one new virus will be brought to naive hosts, Dr. Colin Carlson. Reported. Georgetown University in Washington, DC and his colleagues.

They say that the transmission of new infections is most likely to occur in high altitude, species-rich environments in Africa and Asia. Nature..

The new virus-sharing experience is predicted to be primarily caused by bats, and Carlson et al. Found that they are likely to carry a virus that could spread to humans.

The authors said these findings underscore the global need for virus monitoring and assessment of species-level changes caused by climate change. This is especially true in the tropics, where the number of infectious diseases transmitted from animals to humans is highest.

“Climate change is fundamentally shaking our ecosystems, so we need to evolve the way we understand viruses and their ecosystems,” said Dr. Gregory Albury, co-author of Georgetown University, at a press conference. I mentioned in. “We need to start preparing for this, not just now.”

“This is happening and cannot be prevented even in the best climate change scenarios. We need to take steps to build a health infrastructure to protect the animal and human populations,” Albury added. .. “Ultimately, this study provides us with indisputable evidence that the coming decades will not only get hotter, but also get sick.”

As the species move in the face of environmental change, many animals will bring their pathogens and parasites into the area for the first time, Carlson and colleagues wrote. Since many epidemics and pandemics are caused by wildlife, this poses a threat to the health of the world, and when these pathogens jump to a human host, a “spillover” event occurs. Some models have tried to track hotspots of viral infections, but few have predicted where the highest risk areas of global environmental change are.

The authors modeled both species migration patterns and global warming scenarios to predict where and how climate change creates opportunities for viral infections, especially tracking risks to human health. .. They included only mammals in their predictions because they have the most complete biodiversity data and a downstream link between human health and the emergence of zoonotic diseases.

By 2070, the team built a species distribution model for nearly 4,000 species of mammals and predicted geographical changes based on four different scenarios of climate and land-use changes. The final analysis mapped the migration patterns of 3,139 mammal species.

Carlson et al. Recognized that the species distribution model was sensitive to user subjective choices and may have influenced these findings. They also noted that this model ignores many factors that can affect mobility, such as animal social behavior.

The team emphasized that reducing greenhouse gas emissions cannot reduce the likelihood of climate-induced infections. Even if mitigation efforts are successful and the planet remains warming at 2 ° C, wildlife disease monitoring and public health infrastructure improvements will be needed to manage future pandemic risks. They added.

“We must admit that climate change is the largest upstream driver of disease outbreaks,” Carlson said. “We need to build a healthcare system that is ready for that.”