The Omicron subvariant fuels NY Wave. Are we next? – NBC Boston

A COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) Submutants estimated by health authorities to be more contagious than the first progeny of the potent infectious Omicron strain It currently accounts for over 60% of all viruses prevalent in the New York area.According to the new CDC data released on Tuesday.

According to health officials, the prevalence of BA.2.12.1 in the New York area appears to be up to 27% more infectious than BA.2, increasing at a much faster rate than across the country, the data said. is showing. Hospitalization rate continues, It topped 2,000 for the first time since late February on Tuesday.

Also, the BA.2.12.1 subvariant currently accounts for only about 28% of New England cases, but the number has steadily increased in recent weeks.

So far, there is no scientific evidence linking BA.2.12.1 to more severe COVID-related illnesses or reduced vaccine efficacy, but the increased contagiousness is clear. Can you see the number of subvariant cases soaring here? Can it dramatically boost cases and hospitalizations again?

Massachusetts COVID Index, Tracked by Public Health Service Interactive coronavirus dashboardHas been declining since the surge in Omicron, The number of cases is starting to increase again..

Massachusetts health officials reported 2,985 new COVID-19 cases and 14 new deaths on Wednesday. The state’s average 7-day positive rate rose from 5.63% on Tuesday to 5.79% on Wednesday.

COVID level in wastewater reported by Massachusetts Water Resources Bureau tracking system The Boston area was slightly depressed at the beginning of last week It wasn’t enough to convince Boston’s top doctors that we were clear from the spring surge. By the time of the sample by Monday, these levels were rising again, so the trend is inconsistent.

Dr. Siladron, a hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, said: “Similar to BA2, how complex interactions of various factors (vaccination rate, infection rate, pre-vaccination and / or timing of infection, weather, etc.) occur, and an increase in cases. Or it is impossible to predict if there will be a surge. Vaccination. It is always possible. “

Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes, Head of Infectious Diseases at Brigham Hospital, agreed that it is difficult to say for now whether what is happening in New York can be seen here as well.

“I think it’s very difficult to predict if this additional Omicron subvariant will surge in Massachusetts cases,” he said. “We are already experiencing an increase in the number of cases, positive rates, and hospitalizations (and keep in mind that these are just what we know. Reported on home tests. I don’t know how many cases haven’t been done) .. “.

“So far, the information available suggests that all Omicron submutants behave essentially like Omicron in terms of disease severity, despite their different infectivity.” Kritsukes added.

According to the latest data compiled by NBC News, the United States has more than one million COVID-19 deaths.

Despite the rise in incidents here, Massachusetts and other New England states are still taking steps to regain the relaxed Maskmandate or other COVID-related restrictions following the January Omicron fuel surge. I haven’t taken it.

And this may be just the beginning. Additional subvariants are already causing surges in other parts of the world.

Subvariants BA.4 and BA.5As early data suggest, it is less contagious than BA.2.12.1 but more contagious than BA.2 and is endemic in South Africa and Europe. They have not yet been detected in the results of experiments in the United States, but experts say they are likely already here.

“South Africa has reached very low levels of cases after a large omicron surge. They have entered the winter months and are showing similar rises as we have seen after our large omicron surge. “Dron said. “Repeat, I think this emphasizes that our new normals are probably foreseeable ups and downs, ascending and descending, mountains and valleys.”

“We don’t have a lot of data yet because it’s so new,” added Dr. Sabrina Asomou of the Boston Medical Center. “It seems to be more contagious than BA.2. We continue to obtain variants that appear to be more contagious. That means we need to be more vigilant.”

So far, Assoumou said the data did not show that submutants of BA.4 and BA.5 cause more serious illnesses, but continued to encourage people to vaccinate and boost immunization.

“I think we’re looking at something very interesting right now,” Kuritzkes said. “Looking at what’s happening in the last four months, we can see that Omicrons are diversifying as they adapt, rather than new variants emerging from different parts of the globe. It suggests that Omicron may be maximally efficient. With the emergence of completely other variants, Omicron is improving on its own, so this series of There is a sublineage. “

“It’s important to remember that South Africa was in a very similar situation to what it is today when we came down from the delta wave,” he said. “Does that mean that BA.4 and BA.5 spread all over the world and generate different Omicron waves? We really don’t know.”