Another COVID surge is here, but it may not be so serious

May 10, 2022-Increasing COVID-19 cases and hospitalization may mean a new stage in the pandemic. Also, the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 is expected to increase, but the short-term surge is not expected to look like the previous wave.

This is not expected to be as serious as the previous wave in the short term, a team of experts at Johns Hopkins University told reporters on Tuesday. But they said everything could change.

Cases have tripled in the past few weeks, but compared to a 25% increase in hospitalizations with COVID-19, David Dowdy, MD, PhD said.

Daudi predicted that mortality would also increase. These numbers usually last for weeks on hospitalization rates, but “but they won’t spike,” he said.

Daudi, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, said the pandemic isn’t over yet, as COVID-19 still kills an average of 300 Americans a day. “People are still dying from COVID, so we can’t rule out the possibility of a big wave in the coming months.”

Mild case

More positively, Daudi said that the average case of COVID-19 has become milder over time.

“This is probably because our population is boosting immunity, not necessarily because the mutants are mild in their own right,” Daudi said.

Good news for most people, “This means that the virus is still very dangerous for those who have not yet been vaccinated, who are not immune, or who have a weakened immune system. It’s a deadly virus. “

Epidemiologists are heavily dependent on numbers, and Daudi admitted that the number of cases at this point in the pandemic is unreliable given the increasing number of tests in homes where many test results are unknown. .. But he added that there is no perfect data source.

“Hospitalization isn’t perfect, but it’s certainly better than the current number of cases. Mortality is still a useful but late indicator,” he said. New methods such as wastewater monitoring can help monitor pandemics as well.

“None is perfect, but when everything is trending together, you get the feeling that a new wave is coming,” Daudi said.

Divided house

People in the same household may experience a pandemic differently, from not getting sick to mild or severe illness.

Dr. Priya Duggal, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, MPH said in a briefing that there are many reasons for such a difference. Differences in exposure, immune response, pre-existing conditions, and degree of ventilation in the home can all play a role. She said that a person’s general health can also determine how well they fight infections.

“At some level, we all need to have some respect for the virus, and we recognize that we can get sick more than our neighbors,” Daudi said.

More cases during mild weather?

When asked if he could face a summer surge that needed to return to precautionary measures such as masks and quarantine, Daudi said, “In a sense we realize that we are already in the midst of a surge. That’s important. “

He said there are indicators that the level of coronavirus infection in the United States is about the same as that experienced during the delta wave, and about the same as the first winter surge of the pandemic.

“We’re seeing a small rise, but not the same big rise we’ve seen in some of these previous waves,” Daudi said.

“In a way, I think this is encouraging. Differences are beginning to be seen between the number of cases and the number of hospitalizations and deaths,” Daudi said. “But it was also a bit disappointing that we experienced all of this, and we are still seeing a rise, and the number of people admitted to the hospital is increasing.”

“It’s skyrocketing, and I don’t know if that will require us to return to a more restrictive policy,” Daudi added.