Will California resume masking rules as cases of COVID are increasing?

San Francisco –

With the ever-increasing number of cases of coronavirus in some parts of California, the big problem is that some local governments may decide that the waves are big enough to intervene in the new rules. If there is.

The numbers suggest that such behavior is still a bit far away, as infection and hospitalization rates are still far from what authorities consider to be a danger zone. While coronavirus-positive hospitalization rates have begun to rise in some parts of California, overall rates remain relatively low.

And it is unclear whether the pace of new infections will accelerate, remain stable, or actually begin to reach its peak and begin to decline. According to state data posted on Friday, case numbers have begun to decline slightly in some parts of California, but this wave peaks, whether it’s a blip or a temporary interruption in case reporting. ..

Still, some late spring or summer waves are still possible in California, as they occurred in each of the first two years of the pandemic, and the magnitude of this year’s waves remains unresolved. And it has many professionals who encourage voluntary action, such as wearing masks in indoor public places, to help prevent bigger problems in the future.

In California, Los Angeles County gave an overview of a scenario in which the Public Health Service resumed ordering universal masks in public indoors a few weeks ago.

Although few regions across the country have recently reordered masks, case numbers and hospitalization rates have risen significantly elsewhere in the country. Locations that meet the triggers that LA County uses to reissue mask wear orders include the county that is home to Boston. Detroit; Buffalo, New York; Suburban areas around New York City, such as Long Island and Westchester County.

LA County remains far from meeting its own criteria for reissuing mask orders, but is concerned about a modest increase in coronavirus case rates. Since then, LA County has strongly recommended that all residents over the age of 2 wear high-quality breathing masks, especially KF94, KN95, N95 masks, in indoor public places. .. Lifted Ordered a universal mask for 7 and a half months after birth on March 4th.

As of Friday, LA County averaged about 2,800 new coronavirus cases per day last week, up 18% from the previous week, and according to Times analysis of county data, per 100,000 residents per week. There were 194 cases. The case rate has quadrupled in the last 6 weeks.

At the current pace, LA County is expected to move from the low COVID-19 community level defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as early as this week to a medium COVID-19 colored green on the agency’s map. .. Community level, shaded in yellow. LA County moves into the moderate COVID-19 community-level category as it begins reporting 200 cases of coronavirus per week for every 100,000 residents.

Health officials say that when Los Angeles County reaches a high COVID-19 community level colored orange on the CDC map, the universal mask obligation will be reinstated. The CDC recommends universal indoor masking in counties with high COVID-19 community levels. LA County goes one step further and demands a face cover again when the threshold is reached.

However, LA County remains far from that threshold.

One way LA County can reach high COVID-19 community levels is if it begins reporting a little over 1,000 new coronavirus-positive hospitalizations, or 10 new weekly hospitalizations per 100,000 residents.

As of Thursday, LA County reported 315 new coronavirus-positive hospitalizations per week, or 3.1 new hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants per week.

However, the rate of new hospitalizations is increasing at a relatively modest pace. More cautious behavior by Angelenos, as well as increased vaccination and booster immunity rates, may help delay or reverse the trend in the meantime.

“COVID-19 is currently not burdening our health system and our health resources,” said Barbara Ferrer, director of public health at Los Angeles County, Thursday.

The pace of new weekly coronavirus-positive hospitalizations is faster elsewhere. In mid-April, Boston’s hometown of Suffolk County began to see a more rapid increase in new coronavirus-positive hospitalization rates.

Suffolk County reached a high COVID-19 community level threshold on May 5. And as of Thursday, Suffolk County reported four times the rate of new weekly coronavirus-positive hospitalizations in Los Angeles County.

No county in California is at the high COVID-19 community level of the CDC. Nine is a medium level, the highest number since early March. The counties of Santa Clara, Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo, Sonoma, Santa Cruz, Marin, Humboldt, and Pramas.

Feller wanted LA County to be able to avoid reaching the high COVID-19 community level if people took more precautions.

“I think you can have a little control over whether that happens, with special care,” Feller said. “No one should underestimate their obligation to prevent infection or infection of others.”

Many nasty indicators remain for the increase in viral infections in LA County. Coronavirus levels in widespread wastewater in the county have almost doubled in the last two weeks, Feller said.

Coronavirus infections in the workplace are also on the rise, with 140 sites reporting coronavirus outbreaks between May 4 and May 10. Building materials and gardening stores; electronics stores; businesses in the manufacturing, financial and insurance sectors as well.

The county-wide positive rate test rate has increased to 2.8%. It was about 2.2% a week ago.

Those who survived the previous Omicron infection cannot be guaranteed not to be re-infected with another Omicron submutant, Feller said. “It’s reasonable to expect us to see some reinfections,” Feller said.

Due to the different predominant strains of the circulating Omicron subvarieties, Los Angeles County may have less hospital impact than parts of the East Coast. “The cycle is less common,” Feller said, although subvariants BA.2.12.1 are more common on the East Coast.

“Therefore, there can be different subvariants that dominate the East Coast and here in California, which can create different scenarios,” Feller said.

With rising case rates, health authorities across California have recently doubled their cases, indoors from Fresno County, which has nearly 70 cases per 100,000 residents per week, to the San Francisco Bay Area. Issued a warning recommending wearing a mask in public places. It reports more than 200 cases per week for every 100,000 residents. The weekly coronavirus case rate is considered to be 50 or higher and 100 or higher.

“People are now at high risk of being infected with COVID-19,” San Francisco health officer Dr. Susan Philip said in a statement. “Wearing a mask in a public place indoors is a wise move, and it is also important to keep up to date with vaccinations and, importantly, to plan to contact your doctor if you become infected.”

Bay Area health authorities have not outlined the criteria for reestablishing Maskmandate.

Hospitalizations are increasing in California, but still at relatively low levels. As of Saturday, there were 1,378 coronavirus-positive patients in California hospitals, up 16% from the previous week. The number of coronavirus-positive patients in the intensive care unit has fluctuated between about 140 and 180 on certain days so far this month, at a near-record low.

The increase in coronavirus cases may have peaked in parts of the state.

Coronavirus levels in wastewater are increasing in most parts of California, but some data suggest that they are beginning to plateau in Orange County and San Francisco. Dr. Alexander T. Yu, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the California Public Health Service, said at a briefing at California Medical Asun. last week.

On Friday, California reported an average of 7,954 cases of coronavirus per day last week, or 142 cases per week for every 100,000 inhabitants. This is an increase of only 2% compared to the previous week, but there was a weekly increase of 24% in the previous week.

LA County reports that the weekly increase is more modest. The recent weekly increase in case rates in LA County increased by 18%, a milder rate compared to the previous week, which increased by 29%.

San Diego County reports a similar trend, with the number of cases increasing by 17% last week to 162 per 100,000 inhabitants per week. Compared to the previous week, the number of cases increased by 39% weekly.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, the actual case rate was reported to have decreased by 5%, from 219 per 100,000 inhabitants a week ago to 208 per 100,000 inhabitants on Friday. Has decreased to.

Orange County also reported a 6% decrease as of Friday, from 97 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week to 91 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week.

In Los Angeles County, there are some potential explanations for why hospitalizations and deaths haven’t increased commensurately so far, despite an increase in cases over the seven weeks. LA County is stable with few daily COVID-19 deaths, with about four deaths per day.

According to Feller, there may still be a delay between the infection and the onset of serious illness, but this delay will be much longer than previously observed. Vaccination, booster immunity, protective effects of anti-COVID drugs, and some innate immunity after previous infections may also help.

Another possible explanation, according to Feller, is that the age group of recently infected people is not at high risk for severe illness. The age group with the highest cases of coronavirus is 12-49 years, with the lowest cases in children over 80 and under 5 years.

Reducing the incidence of teens and young adults, according to Feller, is still important because it can spread the virus to more vulnerable people.

Feller urged people not to find it cumbersome and inconvenient to ask them to test themselves before they get together, even if they are completely vaccinated and have no symptoms of the disease.

“One of the things we learned about Omicron is that there are many asymptomatic people during the infection,” Feller said. Asking everyone to test will increase the protection of everyone, especially when it’s crowded indoors and when you’re with high-risk people.

“Don’t think it’s a hassle to ask people to test if they come to a rally,” Feller said. “No one should feel that way.”

Test positive rates at schools in LA County have increased from less than 0.2% in early April to just under 0.5% in early May. Still, “although this increase is seen,” this rate “indicates a relatively low infection rate in schools, and we want to keep it that way,” Feller says. I did.

Taking steps to reduce infection also reduces the likelihood of long COVIDs. In this case, symptoms of the illness, such as chronic breathing problems, tiredness, persistent headaches, and brain fog, can last for months or years.

In LA County, it has been reported that after being infected with mild COVID-19 and recovering, he became ill with COVID symptoms that were more severe and longer than at the time of the initial infection. According to Feller, there are reports of people who were so ill with COVID-19 that they didn’t feel they were completely recovered.