“Life with COVID” in the Bay Area may mean dealing with big swells over the years

“I haven’t thought about it so far. So far, there’s still a tough road to go, but unfortunately we do, so we have to face it,” La Jolla (San Diego). Dr. Eric Topol, Executive Vice President of Scripps Research in County), said. “This damn virus is very annoying.”

Bay Area infection rates are at least as high as last summer and fall delta surge peaks. At the end of last week, the area reported about 2,500 cases of coronavirus per day, but health officials tested it at home or not at all, so the actual number of infections. States much more.

Importantly, most people are not seriously ill and hospitalizations are well below the peak of their previous surge. In California, the death toll has been stable and low for the past six weeks, never approaching the darkest days of the pandemic.

Experts say that even in highly immune areas such as the Bay Area, at least one more time until the virus settles in a milder and more predictable pattern and more tools are developed to effectively stop the infection. , You need to anticipate this kind of swell on a regular basis for two years. .. Experts agree that the virus is unlikely to spread forever in a disorderly manner, but there is no guarantee that such a pattern will emerge.

According to experts, the coronavirus may never cause massive death and devastation during the first two years of a pandemic, but for the foreseeable future it will continue to play a major role in daily life.

It causes frequent confusion in school and work schedules, forces people to constantly evaluate when and where to wear face masks, and is potentially dangerous for people vulnerable to severe illness over the years to come. It may do as easy a job as going to a grocery store.

“This surge really speaks to the fact that we don’t have all the answers in COVID,” said Dr. Nicholas Moss, Alameda County Health Officer. “It’s probably best to keep planning these waves for the foreseeable future, not just expecting it to continue to circulate. Slow burning isn’t enough.”

Dr. George Rutherford, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco and a former health officer at the California Department of Public Health, said the state is looking for a foreseeable future twice a year, perhaps in spring, late fall and winter. He said he was planning a surge. health. But he and others did not deny that the waves could hit the state again this summer.

California may be facing yet another brutal surge in the fall and winter. “Especially if there are new variants,” Rutherford added. And given how rapidly the coronavirus continues to evolve, he said there are likely to be new variants.

In the first five months of this year, four new variants have been developed from Omicron that are causing havoc in spots around the world. In the United States, the BA.2 subvariant first, and then more and more BA.2.12.1 (basically Omicron’s offspring and grandchildren, respectively), are causing the infection. According to experts, each is 20% to 30% more infectious than its parents.

Two other subvariants (BA.4 and BA.5) are promoting cases in South Africa and Portugal and were recently labeled as “variant of concern” by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention. ..

“This disease is approaching the level of measles, the most contagious disease we know of,” Rutherford said.

All four of the new subvariants show signs of increased ability to evade immunity, either from infection or vaccination. Infection from Omicron, for example, does not appear to provide much protection against reinfection of most of its submutants.

According to Topol, the coronavirus is “persistent” in its evolution. It seems to pick up “functional” mutations, that is, changes in genetic structure that provide evolutionary benefits such as facilitating the spread and avoidance of immunity, faster over time. And it is constantly shuffling mutations with new arrangements that may give the variant more competitiveness.

To shake off this cycle of spikes, tools that are far more powerful than currently available vaccines may be needed, Topol and others say. They may include nasal or oral vaccines that can block infections more than currently available shots. Such vaccines have been researched and developed, but none are close to approval yet.

According to experts, the virus will continue to circulate widely until such a neutralizing vaccine is available, and it can surge every few months as the immune system weakens and new variants arrive. ..

“I don’t know how long this will last, I don’t know how many new variants there are, and more,” said Dr. Susan Philip, a San Francisco health officer. “There is always the possibility that new and more infectious subvariants will exist.”

For better or for worse, assuming the vaccine continues to tolerate serious illness, future waves may unfold in the same way as it is happening now.

National, state and local responses will probably continue in the same way as this current wave. Extensive public health obligations, such as masking requirements, may never come back unless the hospital goes out of control again. Schools and businesses will probably remain open and fully operational. Large-scale events such as basketball games, high school proms, and music festivals may not be canceled, even if they promote further communication to the community.

Dr. Bella Matthias, a health officer in Solano County, says that people need to incorporate COVID precautions into their lives, just as they make dozens of other decisions to stay safe and healthy. I said it would be.

“Welcome to being human. Every time I get in the car, I wear a seatbelt, stop at the traffic lights, and avoid eating rodenticides,” Matthias said. “You do what you can to live healthy.”

Sure, health officials like Matthias said people may be fed up with this sixth wave and even more outlook, but the situation isn’t entirely disastrous.

Moss, a health officer in Alameda County, said: “But it’s exhausted.”

“We’ve been saying COVID is with us for some time, but for years, if not forever, but it’s still hard to see what it looks like. “He added. “I still believe that we’ll reach a point where things become more predictable, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen soon. It could take a few more years.”