Did Floyd’s protest lead to a virus outbreak? This is what we know

For over two months, authorities have encouraged New Yorkers to stay indoors and stay away from others. But after police killed George Floyd in Minneapolis, tens of thousands of New Yorkers flooded the streets day and night to protest police atrocities and racism.

Epidemiologists are preparing for a surge of new cases of coronavirus. But it hasn’t come yet.

About 754 Covid-19 cases were diagnosed on May 27, the day before the protests began in New York City, according to the city’s Department of Health. This was the last time the city recorded more than 700 cases a day.

By the end of the first week of protests, the city had recorded slightly more than 500 cases per day. By the end of the second week of protest, the minimum number of cases per day was 400s or the maximum was 300s. They continued to fall slightly. The last time New York City recorded more than 300 cases was June 22.

“We look very closely at the number of positive cases each day to see if there is a rising trend associated with protests,” said Ted Long, executive director of the city’s contact tracking program. ]. “We have never seen it.”

In the interview, several epidemiologists expressed surprise or relief and provided a theory of what happened. This is what we know:

The spread of the virus in New York City has already slowed.

The blockade enacted in March worked. By the end of May, when the protests began, the virus was not as prevalent as it was when lockdown began.

Wafael Saddle, epidemiology professor at Columbia University, said: “In New York City, the number of incidents has dropped significantly, and these protests appear to have a much lower probability of encountering Covid-19 cases.”

It is difficult to determine exactly how low it is. During June 10,000-35,000 New Yorkers per day were tested for Covid-19. New York City coronavirus test rate is always positive Declined In June, from about 3% at the start to 2%. However, New York City has little published specific information about current hotspots, clusters, or current infection rates in different age groups.

Some cities and states have tested demonstrators and published their findings.

In New York, Governor Cuomo was in early June. Dedicated to 15 test sites In the city just for those who took part in the protest. But a state health department spokesman said the data were not yet available.

Kitaw Demissie, an epidemiologist and dean of the SUNY Downstate School of Public Health in Brooklyn, said mass demonstrators could play a role in the spread of the virus in accelerating areas such as southern and western states. I said yes.

Outdoor transmissions are more rare.

According to epidemiologists, the demonstration situation may not have contributed to the infection, largely because the protests took place outdoors.

The virus spreads far simply Close indoor contact is considered, indoors rather than outdoors Main Transmission driverSays an epidemiologist. One study Based on a review of 110 Japanese cases, we found that the probability of infection was 18.7 times higher in all closed environments, from fitness studios to tents, than in outdoor settings. Another study found in China containing reviews of thousands of cases Single instance only Of outdoor transmission.

In Minnesota, where Mr. Floyd was killed, incidents among young people increased significantly in June. But authorities said Resumed rally The bar was partially blamed.

Virus It is believed that It primarily spreads through droplets containing the virus that are released when a contagious person coughs, sneezes, or talks. When you’re outdoors, the virus-laden air Dilute rapidly It was carried away from a poorly ventilated room. Because A certain amount of virus According to epidemiologists, infectious doses require dilution, which can make a big difference.

Another potential factor: demonstrators moved frequently and marched at a brisk pace. It may promote dilution and have separated people from each other.

“This does not mean that being in the crowd is not dangerous,” said Howard Markel, a doctor and medical historian at the University of Michigan who wrote about past epidemics. He said the New York protesters may have been “incredibly lucky”.

He pointed out that outdoor crowds could accelerate the spread of respiratory viruses — The most notorious of the war is the bond parade During the 1918 flu pandemic in Philadelphia.

Most protesters wore masks.

The New York City Department of Health has asked protesters to increase the likelihood of transmission rather than chant or yell, but instead ask them to consider raising a sign and bringing a drum. It was.

But while the advice was barely noticeable, most protesters clung to another.

21-year-old Carlos Polanco from Brooklyn protested for 21 consecutive days, often before a loudspeaker protest. Up-and-coming Polanco at Dartmouth College said he was trying to wear a mask except when he was making speeches and chants, while trying to keep a distance of 6 feet from others.

And many protesters Protest police officer did not wear a mask..

There was still a wave of infections associated with the protests.

Some scientists say it’s too early to see how much transmission has taken place in the New York demo. One of the reasons is that many of the protesters were young adults. Severe cases and hospitalizations are less common in this demographic. As a result, the increase in cases that started within this demographic may remain undetected for longer by public health officials.

“We don’t know the impact. In a last week’s interview, virologist Florian Cranmer of Ikhan School of Medicine on Mount Sinai said she would see that in the next two weeks.

In addition, city officials instructed contact tracers not to ask new Covid-19 patients if they participated in the protest, To report of city, A non-profit news organization.

And the protest continues. Hundreds of people have gathered at City Hall Park in the past few weeks, Request a deep cut To the New York police budget. Some protesters camp under sleeping bags or tarpaulins. The rally has made some comparisons with the occupied Wall Street premises in nearby Zcotti Park in 2011.Zukotti Lung“And toured the camp.

So far, there is no clear increase in the number of emergency room patients who report symptoms such as pneumonia or flu. This is an indicator tracked by the city’s Department of Health as an early warning system for Covid-19 infections.

But public health experts cautioned against drawing too much comfort from the New York experience. “The University of Michigan is a historian and doctor,” says Markel.