Little evidence that protests spread coronavirus in the US

NEW YORK — According to public health experts, there is little evidence that the protests following George Floyd’s death caused a significant increase in US coronavirus infections.

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According to experts, the jump would have begun to become apparent within two weeks if the protest triggered the explosion. But that didn’t happen in many cities with the biggest protests, including New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington DC.

In what is considered the first systematic consideration of the question, a team of economists Decision Only one of the 13 cities involved in the earliest wave of protests after Memorial Day shows that there was an increase consistent with the pattern.

Experts say incidents and hospitalization surged after the end of the Arizona home order on May 15 and Governor Doug Ducey’s decision to deregulate companies. Arizona residents who cracked down for six weeks rushed into the Phoenix area, ignoring social distance guidelines.

The lead author of the study, Daval Dave of Bentley University, believes that in many cities, protests actually led to a net increase in social distance, as people who did not protest decided to leave the streets. Was broken.

“Large-scale protests can impact both protesters’ and non-protesters’ actions,” Dave said. This paper was published last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but has not appeared in a peer-reviewed journal.

The Associated Press surveyed trends daily reported in 22 protesting US cities based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Other factors are likely to be the main ones, experts say. Post-protest increases have been seen in several cities, such as Houston and Madison, Wisconsin.

Health officials are still investigating case surges in various states, and more data may come in. But experts believe that stronger signs will now become apparent if the protests have had a significant impact on the case.

Floyd was killed on May 25 by a Minneapolis police officer, using his knees to secure Floyd’s neck to the ground. The killing of black men by the hands of white officers has affected protests throughout the United States. Coincidentally, some states began lifting restrictions on social distance in late May.

Dave and his colleagues have counted protests over three weeks in 281 cities with a population of at least 100,000. Most protests lasted more than three days, and many protested with at least 1,000 participants.

It is not clear how many protesters took part, as well as how many of them wore masks and were later tested. It may vary from place to place.

Houston is one of the cities in Texas, where the number of cases and hospitalizations has skyrocketed. Dr. Umair Shah, executive director of the County Health Department, believes it may have caused the protest.

“We don’t know how much,” he said.

However, it is difficult to measure the exact impact of protests for many reasons, Shah and colleagues said. According to Shah, the resumption of previous operations and the willingness to withdraw the social distance guidelines have begun a trend in the Houston area.

Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptomatic. According to experts, many of the protesters are young adults and are generally less likely to be severe, so they may not have been tested.

Also, some test takers may not answer all the questions asked by an outbreak investigator.

“I know three people who said, “Yes, I was protesting.” This does not mean that there are no more than 25 people who took part in the protest and did not share it with us.” Said Dr. Michele Roberts, a public health commissioner in Columbus, Ohio.

Although the number of cases has increased in the city last month, health authorities have attributed it to certain reasons other than those who return to social and normal activities without wearing a mask or taking other precautions. I don’t think so. So far, protests do not seem to be a real factor.

“Most of the protests were out, at least in my jurisdiction,” Roberts said the virus had not spread. “And I think 50% of the protesters wore face masks.”