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Dynamics of Delta and Omicron Establishment and Domination in US States

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In a recent study posted on medRxiv* Preprint server, researchers analyzed the establishment and predominant dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) delta and variant of concern (VOC) in the United States (US).

study: Existing herd immunity in the United States and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 mutants and dominant dynamics: ecological studies.. Image credit: FOTOGRIN / Shutterstock

The rate of transfer of SARS-CoV-2 variants from previous VoCs to DeltaVoCs or OmicronVoCs is not significantly affected by existing population-level immunity. Understanding the replacement of previous SARS-CoV-2 mutants with new mutants and the impact of population-level immunity on mutant dynamics is a global indication that SARS-CoV-2VOC has not yet emerged. It is essential to inform you of your preparation.

About research

In current ecological studies, researchers have assessed the impact of state-level immunity among US residents on the predominance of delta and omicron VOCs. They hypothesized that if antigenic escape is the key to VoC-dominated dynamics, both VOCs will rapidly prevail in highly immune US states and will have a significant impact during Omicron takeover.

The team used publicly accessible data on SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccination rates, and VoC rates to assess the dynamics of establishment and superiority of Delta VoCs and Omicron VoCs. They evaluated the association between state-level anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity and the date, timing, and rate of VoC migration.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic data is available in all states of the United States from January 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 (Delta Wave) and November 24, 2021 to February 8, 2022 (Omicron). Obtained from a global initiative on sharing the Influenza Data (GISAID) database. wave). In both periods, the percentage of VoCs appearing in the entire SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence was extracted and calculated as a weekly average.

The first week in which a VoC was sequenced was considered the VoC appearance week if a> 1 isolate of that VoC was detected in the next 3 weeks. Measures of the derived VoC migration study results were takeover rate, VoC dominant days, and VoC establishment to dominant days.

Dates with a VoC ratio above 50% were considered VoC dominance dates. The period during which the percentage of VoCs increased from 10% to 50% was considered to be the period from the establishment of VoCs to the predominance. State-wide anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunization uses terms such as complete vaccination rate, booster rate, previous COVID-19 percentage, previous full / booster vaccination or previous COVID-19 percentage. Was estimated.

The primary analysis evaluated vaccination-induced mass serological immunity at the state level using the highest existing vaccines. Effectiveness During VoC migration, that is. Complete and booster vaccination rates during DeltaVoC takeovers / transitions and OmicronVoC takeovers. For all variant takeover measurements, linear regression modeling was used to estimate the association with population-level immunity across the US state.

Results and discussion

No significant association was found between state-level herd immunity and VoC transfer / takeover rates for delta VoC or Omicron VoC. Omicron hijacking was observed on later calendar days among the more immune US states, and Delta hijacking showed an equivalent (but not substantive) trend. There was a significant difference in time from establishment to dominance with Omicron VoC, but there was a delay in immune status not observed with Delta VoC. Similar results were observed for all VoCs after limiting population-level immune estimates for complete and / or boosted immunization rates only.

Between population-level immunity and the rate of hijacking variants with significantly delayed Omicron VOC hijacking and the insubstantial tendency to delay Delta hijacking dates in US states, including fully vaccinated individuals. No association was found. Considering the complete vaccination ratio (instead of the booster vaccination ratio) to indicate anti-Omicron immunity or preceding SARS-CoV-2 infection as the only measure of delta and omicron serological immunity, herd immunity and No significant association between VoCs was found.

Antigenic SARS-CoV-2VOC is usually expected to be transmitted between vaccinated individuals. However, this may be offset by a reduction in secondary SARS-CoV-2 infection within the same highly immune subpopulation. The significant delay in Omicron’s time and date, rather than Delta’s takeover, may be due to Omicron’s high ability to infect pre-existing immune individuals while competing with Delta’s VoC.

In summary, the authors hypothesized that the novel, highly antigenic-avoidant SARS-CoV-2 VOC would predominate at a faster rate in a highly immune state. However, the findings contrasted with the hypothesis, as there was no significant association between delta VoC or omicron VoC takeover rates and population-level immunity across US states. The team focused on a later acquisition by Omicron in a state where population-level immunity is high and Delta VoC results are comparable but not substantive.

*Important Notices

medRxiv publishes unpeer-reviewed preliminary scientific reports and should not be considered definitive, guide clinical / health-related behaviors, or be treated as established information.

Sources

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2/ https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220705/The-dynamics-of-Delta-and-Omicron-establishment-and-dominance-in-US-states.aspx

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