Health
Yale University researchers predict that a COVID-19 epidemic will occur in 2024 – NBC Connecticut
When the COVID-19 pandemic first began, there were numerous unanswered questions. Even now, more than two years later, there are still many mysteries surrounding the ever-evolving virus.
The latest subvariant BA.5 is more contagious than ever. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was the predominant variant in the United States. Submutants appear to be resistant to both vaccines and immunity.
That is, those who have been boosted or have recently been infected with COVID-19 are not yet protected. That is why the CDC recommends masking indoors again.
The virus has evolved so rapidly that it can’t get out of the prison card, so COVID-19 will be with us for quite some time. A new study from Yale School of Medicine shows that the stage of endemic disease is ongoing, but probably not until 2024.
COVID has changed lives for over two years.
“The emotional sacrifices of all of us were great,” said Dr. Caroline Zeiss, a professor of comparative medicine at Yale School of Medicine.
Dr. Zeiss and her team investigated when pandemics are expected to transition to endemic disease.
“I think this is a question that comes to mind for everyone. When can we get back to normal?” She said.
Researchers studied how a mild virus similar to COVID-19 affects rats and used a model to create a timeline.The findings were published in the journal on Tuesday PNAS Nexus..
“We used this model to predict many different scenarios, but in the end, the median time to endemic was about two years,” said Dr. Zeiss.
Things like colds and flu are endemic: everyone gets them from time to time, but they aren’t particularly harmful.
However, Dr. Zeiss said that unlike colds, COVID-19 requires special attention.
“We accepted that we would catch a cold every year, and we think this will eventually happen,” said Dr. Zeiss. “But the disease is still quite pathogenic. There are still warnings that the virus can still be fatal to susceptible people.”
another research It was also published Tuesday before the peer review showed that it was at ongoing risk. This indicates that reinfection rates increase the likelihood that a person will face new or permanent health problems.
The researchers compared the records of 250,000 patients who received one COVID with the other 38,000 patients who were infected more than once.
They found that people with multiple cases were three times more likely to be hospitalized within 6 months of the last infection, compared to people with a single infection.
They were twice as likely to die.
These patients were also at increased risk of lung and heart problems, neurological problems, diabetes, digestive and renal disorders, and fatigue.
Dr. Zeiss said the high infectivity brings the United States closer to endemic conditions, as the new predominant subvariant BA.5 results in the most contagious mutations in COVID-19. However, she said the transition would only occur successfully in vaccine-protected populations.
“In this country, people are now free to move around, not in a closed state. We all have it, we are all exposed to it, many are positive. “Masu,” said Dr. Zeiss. “It amplifies the immunity we have from vaccination. Therefore, the combination of the two is very important. If you are not vaccinated, you will see many illnesses and many deaths. Will be. ”
With the rise of subvariants like BA.5, the Food and Drug Administration has instructed vaccine manufacturers to begin developing boosters specifically targeting Omicron for the fall.
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