Discovered in a study by an American who was at home before being told to save lives

You saved a life.

Studies show that individual decisions to stay home, with the exception of food and drug outages required, could help delay the spread of coronaviruses before state or local home orders were enforced by government authorities. I found that.

Within four months after Covid-19 was first reported in the United States, the disease spread to all states and to more than 90% of all counties.

The study notes that measuring social distances and slowing coronaviruses are primarily due to changes in personal behavior and local regulations, with state and federal regulations either being implemented too late or not being implemented at all. did.

In all 25 counties assessed in the survey, individuals did not move for 6-29 days before the state-wide home order was placed.

According to Loren Gardner, a research author who is an associate professor at the Department of Civil Engineering at Johns Hopkins Whiting, mobile phone data in 21 counties has made personal mobility even before a home order is placed locally. It turns out that is decreasing. Faculty of Engineering.

Is there a good way to track behavior using mobile phone data?

“Telephones are often a good indicator of travel patterns because they are often carried by the person in question,” Flavio Toxbard, an economics lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Research Center at Cambridge University, said in an email. ..

“In any case, the results are the same as those found using other data, such as transaction data from credit cards,” said Toxbard, who was not involved in the study.

From late January to mid-April, research found that people reduced daily activity by varying amounts. In New York City, people have reduced their normal activities by 35%. People in Harris County in Houston have reduced their activity by 63% of the typical one.

In this study, it took on average about 9-12 days to affect the infection rate. This is partly consistent with the virus’s 5-14 day incubation period.

Gardner’s team says that the strong link between social distance and a reduction in infection rates means that reverting to normal mobility across the country creates a significant risk of increased infections-people There is a risk that is not apparent for up to 3 weeks after starting a normal activity activity.

“Yes, the information here is key,” Toxvard said. “If we don’t know the changes in infection risk, we cannot respond to changes in infection risk.

“There are things that information may not change,” he added. “For those people, we may have to provide incentives for actions that favor desirable social distances, for example through fines and the temptation to stay home.”

Some restrictions

The study does not distinguish between low-risk trips like going to a park and high-risk trips like going to a grocery store. Because the data did not include sociodemographic information, researchers were able to identify elderly people, who may have more difficult Couldn’t separate information about people.

“If there is no individual or local action and social distance action is delayed until the state-level directives are implemented, COVID-19 can be distributed in most places for additional weeks without being mitigated. Yes, and inevitably, the number of infectious diseases will increase and we will die.”

“Helping to delay the spread of COVID-19 is within the power of each U.S. resident, even without a government order,” she added.

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