Is the COVID-19 herd’s immune threshold lower than expected?

Thursday, July 02, 2020 (HealthDay News)-Will Young People Going Out and Partying Be the Key to Limiting the COVID-19 Epidemic?

Probably believed to take into account how the virus spreads among young socially active people, arguing that a new mathematical model may achieve immunity in the community. Immunity may be achieved by immunizing fewer people than an infection.

The model estimates that 43% of the population may develop herd immunity after COVID-19 immunization from person-to-person, claiming epidemiologists as the gold standard. Much lower than the 60% to 70% figure that I had.

This estimate is based on the argument that young and socially active people are the main spreaders of the infectious disease and therefore contribute more to the herd’s immunity after being infected and infected with COVID-19, Chief Researcher Tom Britton said. Professor of Mathematical Statistics at Stockholm University, Sweden.

Traditional estimates of herd immunity are based on vaccination, and assume that everyone in the community is equally likely to achieve immunity by being vaccinated.

But Britton and his researchers argued that these estimates were flawed and didn’t take into account the herd’s immunity from diseases that spread through the community.

“Instead, if the immune system results from an infection, the immune system spreads even further among extroverts who expose themselves and others to this disease,” Briton continued. “Therefore, this latter immunity is distributed in a more efficient manner, which means that fewer are needed to reach the herd’s immunity.

“Immunity from exposure to the disease is more diffused among people who are more socially active and more effective than the corresponding levels of immunity when vaccinations are made,” Briton summarized.

However, infectious disease experts point out that there are some problems with the reasoning behind the model for COVID-19.

For one, scientists are not yet sure if cured patients with COVID-19 will be immune to the virus for long periods of time, said the people responsible for prevention and control of infections in downtown Mount Sinai, New York City. One Dr. Walid Jabaid said.

He also added that it was not yet known if the COVID-19 coronavirus could mutate in ways that evade human immunity.

“There will be more models like this, but in reality, you’ll have to wait a year or more to see the actual work,” Javaid said. ..

Dr. Amesh Adalya said the model “may change the herd’s immune threshold when there are certain populations that are less naturally infected than those who are more likely to be infected”. I will. Senior Researcher at Johns Hopkins Health and Safety Center.

However, the model did not take into account the impact on the health care system if multiple young party participants were infected at the same time, Adalja added.

“Immunity of a natural herd by such a virus is difficult to achieve without putting too much strain on the hospital, but this paper is a useful thought experiment that improves our thinking about the concept of herd immunity. Adalja said.

According to Javaid, it would be “very selfish” for a socially active young person to go out and knowingly become infected with COVID-19.

“If I am young and get it, I may get over it, but those who come into contact, older than me, may die from contact after Illness.” Keep in mind that older people and those with weakened immunity are much more likely to have a fatal case of COVID-19.

However, researchers have ensured that their model does not overwhelm hospitals when people become infected and immunized, because their model supports phasing out lockdown restrictions associated with COVID-19. ..

“Paper is not an argument for flock immunity,” Briton said. “According to the results of this paper, herd immunity occurs at a low level of infection, and if the herd’s immunity is not reached, the immunity’s effects are stronger than originally thought.”

Findings recently published in the journal Science..

For more information

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health COVID-19 and herd immunity..