Nearly a quarter of coronavirus tests have returned to positives in Arizona

Arizona has become one of the worst outbreaks in any state, with coronavirus cases rising again throughout the United States. The hospital is preparing for a wave of severely ill patients. Health officials begging the public to wear masks and listen to guidance on social distance even when there is no second home order.

Arizona Quick From early May, to relax regulations on businesses and restart the economy. Most new cases came last month. The Maricopa County, which houses the Phoenix metro area, is currently ranked as one of the top five counties in the United States by total number of cases.

“Our feet are still on the accelerator and the condition is deteriorating and will continue to deteriorate for at least the next 2-3 weeks.” Dr. Joe Gerald, A professor of public health at the University of Arizona, modeling coronavirus outbreaks.

Gerald says the state is essentially doubling the number of cases every two weeks. In the past week, there have been an average of approximately 3,500 new cases per day. On Wednesday, Arizona set a new record with more than 4,800 positive cases. More than 1,700 people have died.

“You don’t have to play that long to realize that you’ll soon have a lot of trouble, because the safety margins of excess hospital beds are decreasing pretty quickly,” he said.

Based on current trends, the state could run out of a licensed bed towards the end of July, according to Gerald, but the prediction is that there will be enough personnel to care for the patient even earlier. It is not taken into consideration.

Of particular concern is that new cases continue to outpace test capabilities.

In Arizona, part of the test that came back positive twenty four%, More than 3 times the national average. The positive rates in Texas and Florida, where the number of cases is increasing rapidly, are 14% and 16%, respectively.

“There is a huge reservoir of individuals who are infected and have the ability to transmit the infection,” Gerald said.

Young adults cause many of the outbreaks in Arizona, often with many cases occurring among people in their 20s and 30s, with mild symptoms or likely asymptomatic symptoms The age group.

It makes tracking cases even more difficult, but Gerald says it may also be saved from hospitals in Arizona being overwhelmed by those in places like New York City.

“If there is a blessing of salvation, the new cases are focused on those who can survive the infection,” he said.

Still, the state is far from putting the virus under control.

This week, Governor of Arizona Doug Duchy Closed Bar, gym, theater. State health officials also said hospitals could activate their critical care standards plans — Guidelines on how to triage patients and allocate scarce resources in an emergency.

But not all hospitals need to do so yet. Beds in the intensive care unit in Arizona Current According to state data, about 90% of capacity.

“There are serious concerns about resource availability, staff availability, and at some point that everything is overrun,” Dr. Dr. said. Ross goldberg, President of the Arizona Medical Association.

Banner Health, the state’s largest hospital system, seeks to free up space for COVID-19 patients by diverting cots and doubling the room. We also employ hundreds of out-of-state healthcare workers.

Staffing is the single biggest limiting factor in hospitals today, said Anne Marie Allamedin, chairman and CEO of Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association.

“We have space. We have plans to proliferate. We have supplies, but medical personnel are nervous, and we need to call for reinforcements,” Aramedin said.

Arizona has asked the federal government to support 500 frontline health workers on its hospital system. On Wednesday, Vice President Pence visited Arizona and said the state would receive all the help needed to cope with the surge in patients.

Both Pence and Duchy wore masks during their visit, which they were reluctant to do early in the pandemic.

Copyright NPR 2020.