3 COVID Scenarios That Could Cause Trouble in the Fall

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OCTOBER 10, 2022 — As the United States enters its third fall with COVID-19, it seems to many that the virus is gone. But for those keeping an eye on it, it’s not being forgotten, as the number of deaths and infections continues to rise at a declining but steady pace.

What does this mean for the coming months? Experts are predicting a range of scenarios, some more dire than others, and some more encouraging.

In the United States, more than 300 people die every day More than 44,000 new cases are reported every day from COVID, according to the CDC.

But progress is undeniable. The grim daily death toll for 2020 has plummeted.Vaccines and treatments have dramatically reduced the number of serious illnesses and the need for masks has largely disappeared. personal preference.

Epidemiologists and other medical experts have applauded this progress, but the maps and numbers point to several scenarios ahead, some of which, combined with weakened immunity, lead to more resistant disease. One mutation, the possibility of a “storm”, etc. indicates that a wave of diseases is coming. “Influenza/COVID onslaught and inadequate use of life-saving vaccines and treatments.

Caitlin Jetelina, Ph.D., assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Texas Health Science Center, said: US waves often follow European waves, and Europe recent spikes Cases and hospitalizations, regardless of the Omicron subspecies, have been linked to weather changes, weakened immunity, and behavioral changes, she says.

While cases fell in all other parts of the world, Europe stands out, with an 8% increase in cases from the previous week.Recent World Health Organization report.

Jetelina cites events such as Germany’s Oktoberfest, which ended last week, drawing nearly six million people in two weeks, as potential contributors, and people heading indoors as weather patterns change in Europe. rice field.

Ali Mokdad, Ph.D., chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington in Seattle, said he was more worried about the potential for new immune evaders to emerge than the documented variants we know of. I’m here.

“I think it will only reduce our visibility into the circulation of this virus,” she says.

“Twindemic”: COVID and the flu

Jetelina noted that Australia and New Zealand have just finished their flu season and have returned to normal after a steep decline in flu numbers over the past two years, with North America typically following suit.

“We expect a flu outbreak here in the United States, possibly at pre-pandemic levels. We’re all holding our breath. We’ve still experienced it,” she says.

However, there is disagreement about the possibility of a so-called “storm”. influenza And COVID.

Dr. Richard Webby, an infectious disease specialist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, thinks it’s unlikely that both viruses will surge at the same time.

“I’m not saying there will be no flu and COVID activity in the same winter, but I think it’s unlikely that both will be raging at the same time.

“If you don’t do anything else, you need to increase your booster intake for that group,” Nuzzo says.

She said paxlovid for treating mild to moderate COVID-19 in patients at high risk of serious illness is often used by health care providers who either think it won’t help or worry about drug interactions. or worry about its “rebound” effect.

Nuzzo encourages more drug use and education Methods of managing drug interactions.

“We have very strong data to help people avoid going to the hospital. Sure, there may be a rebound, but it pales in comparison to the risk of being hospitalized.” she says.

Mild COVID season?

Not all predictions are dire. There’s another less-talked-about scenario, says Sweat. It means that the season of COVID calm may be upon us.

Omicron blew up with such intensity, he notes, that it may have left a wide immunity in its wake. The subspecies seems to be staying with the Omicron family, which could be a signal of optimism.

“If the next subspecies is of Omicron descent, I suspect that all freshly infected people have considerable, if not complete, protection,” says Sweat.