It looks like it’s going to be a tough flu season. ‘Twindemic’ surge from COVID-19 unlikely, health experts say

Cleveland, Ohio — The last two flu seasons have been easy. It’s over, health experts predict.

A more severe flu season is expected this year. Closer to the typical flu season that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic, it peaks earlier than his typical February crescendo.

Why do experts think the flu could rage this winter?

During the past two seasons of the flu, measures to slow the spread of COVID-19, such as social distancing, hand washing, and wearing masks, also slowed the spread of the flu.

Kids are now back in school, rarely wearing masks in public, and no one is planning a socially distanced Thanksgiving dinner.

“There will be fewer masks indoors, and a higher chance of transmission of the flu virus, which has not been seen in the last few years,” said a pharmacist, CVS Regional Director.

A more active flu season could result in nearly 40 flu-related deaths and more than 2,000 flu-related hospitalizations in Cuyahoga County alone. These were the numbers during the county’s last regular pre-pandemic flu season.

compare it Only one fatality was recorded in Cuyahoga County in the 2021-22 season.

“If you look at the flu mortality, the last two years have been really great because there were very few deaths from the flu.” Said Dr. Amy Edwards, Pediatric infectious disease specialist at University Hospitals Rainbow Baby and Children’s Hospital. “The death rate from influenza in children is almost zero.”

So far, influenza activity has been low in Cuyahoga County.

Nationally, most countries reported influenza activity this month, but According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control control and prevention. The highest levels of activity are in the southeastern and south-central United States.

There are other reasons why the flu season we’re in is more severe than in previous years.

Decreased natural defense

People have had lower natural defenses because they had not been exposed to influenza virus in the last two winters, and may not have been vaccinated against influenza because they did not consider themselves to be at risk. said. Dr. Shanu Agarwal Chief Medical Officer at Summa Health.

During the normal flu season, 30% of Americans are commonly exposed to the flu virus. Richard Webby, Influenza Specialist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and member of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System Network.

But that hasn’t happened with the past two seasons of flu, so this season’s immunity is weaker, Webby said. Health industry newsletter Med Page Today.

“A more susceptible population equates to more influenza activity,” said Webby.

Health experts are looking to the southern hemisphere, which winters during the summer, for clues about the upcoming flu season.

The Australian Health Service summary said the season was mild to low, but other observers interpreted the Australian data as There was quite a lot of flu activity, much of it in children.

Overall, “the forecast is definitely higher than we’ve seen in the last two years,” Agarwal said.

The possibility of so-called twindemic is low

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, public health experts have worried about possible winter ‘storms’ A surge in COVID-19 and flu that could overwhelm hospitals. That hasn’t happened yet and is unlikely to happen this winter, Webby said.

“One may follow the other, but the likelihood of overlapping peak activity may be biologically unlikely,” Webby said.

Interactions between flu, coronaviruses, and other common viruses that epidemiologists are still studying could slow the spread of flu this winter, Webby said. He pointed to epidemiological data from earlier this year that the epidemic appeared to be slowing the surge in influenza cases.

“We still don’t understand the interactions between all these respiratory viruses during a pandemic,” he said. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Influenza vaccination is compatible with prevalent viruses

With stronger flu season likely to come, it’s more important than ever to get a flu shot and a COVID-19 booster. According to Summa Health’s Agarwal, the best time to get his flu vaccine is from September he is to October.

This season’s flu shots seem to work well with circulating flu strains and should be quite effective this year. It is safe to take the COVID-19 booster and flu vaccine at the same time.

“It is very important for us to protect ourselves not only from the flu, but also from COVID-19.” Dr. Christine England, Infectious disease specialist at the Cleveland Clinic.

Black, Hispanic, and Native American/Alaska Native adults are more likely to be hospitalized with influenza and less likely to be vaccinated against influenza. According to a new CDC report.

About 54% of whites and Asians received the flu vaccine during the 2021-2022 season, compared with 42% of blacks, 38% of Hispanics and 41% of Americans. Indian/Alaska Native.

Hospitalization rates for influenza were 80% higher for African Americans than for whites, 30% higher for American Indians/Alaska Natives, and 20% higher for Hispanics.

According to the CDC, misinformation and mistrust that contribute to lack of access to medical care, rising rates of chronic disease, and declining confidence in vaccines increase the risk of serious illness from influenza.

most people can get influenza vaccination When COVID-19 booster shot For free. Some insurance plans only cover vaccines given at a doctor or in limited locations.