Health
Monkeypox threat still…: Experts explain 4 ways the virus could evolve in the future
Monkeypox outbreaks have been declining for months, but experts believe a resurgence remains possible due to the fact that the virus is still circulating in African countries.
Earlier this year, monkeypox suddenly began to spread around the world, with over 73,000 cases and 29 deaths recorded in over 100 countries in a short period of time. However, since peaking in July, the number of cases has been steadily declining, especially in Europe and North America. In the seven days to Sunday, the number of new cases worldwide fell by 20% compared to the previous week, according to the WHO.
“We are coming to the end, but we are not there yet,” Jean-Claude Manughera, head of the environment and infectious risks department at France’s Pasteur Institute, told AFP. Told.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week that “declining outbreaks could be the most dangerous outbreaks, as it makes us want to let our guard down and think the crisis is over.”
Aside from the awareness campaign, Carlos Marquer de Motes, a virologist at the University of Surrey in the UK, said vaccination against monkeypox “has helped, but the number of doses available is still low”.
However, a vaccine originally developed to combat smallpox is still recommended to prevent monkeypox.
The European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) said this week that hard data on vaccine efficacy were “still lacking”.
But a preliminary analysis last month by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that unvaccinated people had a 14-fold higher risk of contracting monkeypox.
What scenarios are possible in the future?
The ECDC warned that “substantial uncertainty remains” and presented four possible scenarios for how the outbreak might evolve.
The worst-case scenario is for monkeypox to resurge around the world as the behavior of the at-risk groups returns to normal.
The likely scenario, according to the ECDC, is that the virus remains at relatively low levels, resulting in sporadic outbreaks “almost exclusively” among men who have sex with men.
Or monkeypox may weaken or even be eradicated entirely.
Monkeypox is much less contagious than Covid and does not mutate into other subspecies as quickly.
But “the more cycles of infection, the more likely monkeypox is to change and adapt,” said Maluquer de Motes.
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