Why the mortality rate of COVID-19 decreases

In Pandemic fog, All stats tell a story, but not everyone tells the whole truth. Conservatives seeking evacuation of today’s deaths will find that in a few days the dead are clearly resurrected and their story is rapidly deteriorating. But liberals should also avoid the temptation to flatly reject distant positive discoveries, fearing that it will support the president.

Below are five possible explanations for the death-to-death gap. Think of them as complementary theories, not competing theories.

1. Death is delayed-it may explain almost everything.

It is not possible to seriously discuss case numbers and deaths without knowing that people will die from illness after getting sick. Therefore, there should be a delay between the surge of cases and the surge of deaths. Even more subtly, there may be a delay between the date of the person’s death and the date the death certificate is issued, and another delay before the death is reported to the state and federal government. From this chart COVID tracking project Official reports of COVID-19 mortality can be delayed by up to one month from COVID-19 exposure, as shown in. This suggests that the surge in death is approaching.

Arizona, Florida and Texas are already experiencing a surge of deaths. Since 7 June, the average seven-day death toll in these hotspot states has increased by 69%, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Delayed death is perhaps the most important thing to understand in assessing the dead-to-dead gap. But it doesn’t explain everything. Even if mortality is increasing, the corresponding cases are increasing significantly faster.

2. With the expansion of testing, more cases, milder cases, and previous cases were found.

There are bad ways to talk about tests and subtle ways to talk about it.

A simple version often heard from the president is that the incident is rising only Because the number of tests is increasing. It’s wrong. Since the beginning of June, the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests has increased from 4.5% to 8%. Hospitalization is increasing rapidly in the South and West. These are clear signs of an underlying outbreak.

Subtle things are happening. The huge increase in testing is not a genuine good thing, but it may fool us with confusing weeks of data.

In March and April, there was a lack of tests and healthcare providers had to do distribution tests for the most ill patients. Now that the test is expanding to communities throughout the United States, the results may have picked up milder or even asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.

READ:Disastrous warning from the COVID-19 test provider

The overall point of the test is to find the case, track the patient’s close contact and isolate the disease. However, our excellent test capabilities make it difficult to compare to early surges. It’s like comparing the heights of two mountains when one of the peaks is obscured by clouds. Epidemiologist Ellie Murray I also warned Identifying new ones Fatal The case of COVID-19 early in the victim’s illness process may mean a longer delay between discovery and death. This phenomenon, known as “lead-time bias,” may indicate that a large death surge is approaching.

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