How deadly is COVID-19? Biostatisticians Ask Questions | Kiowa County Press

Ron Flicker, Virginia Tech

According to the latest statistics as of July 10, COVID-19 related deaths in the United States 1,000 per day Nationwide, it has fallen from the peak average daily death toll of around 2,000 in April. However, the cases have again increased significantly, which Large increase in deaths from COVID-19 may continue.. How do these numbers compare to deaths from other causes? Ron Fricker, Virginia Tech statistician and disease surveillance specialist, explain How to understand the magnitude of death from COVID-19.

As a disease surveillance expert, what tools do you need to understand deaths from illness?

Disease surveillance is the process by which we try to understand the prevalence and prevalence of illnesses across the country, often with the specific goal of looking for increased morbidity. The challenge is to separate signal and noise. In other words, it is an attempt to identify an increase in the incidence (signal) of a disease from the daily fluctuations of that disease (noise). It is expected that the increase will be identified as soon as possible and medical and public health professionals will intervene to reduce the impact of the disease on the population.

An important tool in this effort is data. Disease data is often collected and aggregated by municipalities and state public health departments and centers for disease control and prevention from data reported by physicians and healthcare facilities. The surveillance system then uses this data and various algorithms to try to find the signal in the noise.

Early on, many pointed out that the flu killed tens of thousands of people a year, and COVID-19 seemed not too bad. What’s wrong with that comparison?

CDC quote The average number of influenza-related deaths since 2010-11 is approximately 36,000 per year. This was a high death toll of 12,000 from 2011 to 2012 and 61,000 from 2017 to 2018. So far, the number of COVID-19 deaths to date has been three to four times the annual average number of influenza-related deaths over the past decade. It’s 10 times bigger than the 2010-11 flu season, but about twice as big as 2017-18.

To make a fair comparison of this, keep in mind that seasonal flu mostly occurs for months, usually in late fall or early winter. Therefore, the duration is about the same, with the majority of COVID-19-related deaths occurring since late March. However, COVID-19 does not appear to be seasonal, and since the time from infection to death is weeks instead of months, mortality rates are measured late and multiples of the previous paragraph are year-end. Will grow by.

Moreover, mortality rates are below the peak of 2,700 on April 21, 2020, while the U.S. now averages. 1,000 deaths per day Mortality should be expected to rise further, given the dramatic increase in cases in the second half as of July 10. For example, at the University of Washington IHME model By November 1, COVID-19-related deaths are now estimated at over 208,000.

Therefore, by comparison, the mortality rate for COVID-19 is significantly higher than that for seasonal influenza.

What is the comparison that can provide some background in understanding the magnitude of deaths caused by COVID-19?

At the time of writing, more than 130,000 people have died in COVID-19, with a total of more than 200,000 by fall. The numbers are very large and difficult to keep track of.

Ann Arbor’s Michigan Stadium is the largest football stadium in the United States. It holds 107,420 people, so there is no football stadium large enough in the country to accommodate everyone who has died at COVID-19 so far. By the time the bowl season comes, assuming a football season this year, COVID-19 mortality could exceed the combined capacity of the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl stadiums.

Wyoming’s population is less than 600,000, with one in five people in the state dying in the past four months. By this fall, the total death toll of COVID-19 is equivalent to one-third of those who die in Wyoming.

Population of Grand Rapids, Michigan. Huntsville, Alabama; Salt Lake City, Utah, has over 200,000 people each. Imagine everyone died in 6 months in any of those cities. That’s what COVID-19 looks like by autumn.

How does COVID-19 mortality compare to chronic illnesses such as cancer and heart disease?

Today, COVID-19 ranks as the sixth leading cause of death in the United States, following a reduction in heart disease, cancer, accidents, chronic respiratory illness and stroke. Heart disease is the leading cause, with more than 647,000 Americans dying from heart disease each year. Previously the sixth leading cause of death, Alzheimer’s disease kills just over 121,000 people each year. COVID-19 will be the third leading cause of death in the United States by year end, given the current predictions of COVID-19-related deaths from the University of Washington IHME model.

The American Cancer Society estimates that in the year 2020, an estimated 1.8 million new cases of cancer will be diagnosed in the United States and 606,520 will die from cancer. Lung cancer is estimated to kill approximately 135,000 people in the United States in 2020, so the number of deaths from COVID-19 is now comparable and will soon be exceeded. Of course, it is important to note that COVID-19 deaths have occurred in the last four months or so, but lung cancer deaths are one year. Therefore, COVID-19 deaths occur approximately three times as often as lung cancer deaths.

What are the historical comparisons that might help to understand the magnitude of COVID-19 mortality?

The 1918 influenza pandemic was in some ways similar to the current pandemic, and was otherwise different. One of the main differences is the age distribution of deaths. COVID-19 is concentrated in the elderly and the 1918 pandemic affected all ages. In my state of Virginia, only 8% of those who died in the 1918 epidemic were over 50, compared to 97% of COVID-19s.

The CDC estimates that the 1918 pandemic killed approximately 675,000 people in the United States, more than five times the current death toll from COVID-19. In the worst month of the influenza pandemic, October 1918, about 195,000 people died-much more than everyone who died in COVID-19 to date.

As with past comparisons, there are important modifiers. In this case, the influenza pandemic started in early 1918 and lasted until 1919, but the COVID-19 deaths are about one-third (March-June). But today’s US population is about three times the population of 1918. These two factors are largely’cancelled’, so it is reasonable to think that the 1918 epidemic is about five times worse than COVID-19. At least so far.

Compared to past wars, the United States now has more deaths due to COVID-19 than all combat-related deaths in all wars since the Korean War, including the Vietnam War and Operations Desert Shields and Desert Storms. I have experience. In World War II, there were 291,557 combat casualties. Thus, to date, the number of people killed in COVID-19 is about 45% of World War II combat casualties. By autumn, it can be over 70%.

Finally, confirmed and estimated deaths from COVID-19 in New York City (23,247 on 10 July 2020) are more than eight times the number killed in the 9/11 attacks (2,753). be careful.

Ron Flicker, Professor of Statistics and Deputy Dean of School of Education and Management, Virginia Tech

This article is reissued from conversation Under Creative Commons license. Read Original work..