Europe’s cancer mortality continues to fall, with exceptions

Cancer mortality projections for Europe in 2023 suggest that mortality will fall by 6.5% for men and 3.7% for women compared to 2018, but overall deaths will continue to decline as the population ages. expected to increase as a result of the increase.

Researchers led by Carlo La Vecchia, a professor at the University of Milan, predicted 1,261,990 cancer deaths in 2023 in the European Union (EU). In the UK, the projected ASR is 106.5 per 100,000 men and 83.5 per 100,000 women, down 11.4% and 9.8% compared to 2018.

The survey results are Chronicles of Oncology Based on World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970-2018. The researchers made 2023 predictions for all cancers combined and separately for the 10 most common cancer sites: stomach, intestine, pancreas, lung, breast, and uterus. [including cervix]ovary, prostate, bladder, and leukemia).

They also looked at data for the five most populous EU member states: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, and across the 27 EU member states, and conducted a separate analysis for the UK. , researchers published these predictions.

They report that the EU is expected to see a decline in all cancer mortality in men this year. For women, incidence rates of all cancers except pancreatic and lung cancer are expected to decline, increasing by 3.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Good ASR is predicted for all cancers in both men and women in the UK.

lung cancer It is projected to be the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women in the EU, with mortality rates of 29.8 and 13.6 per 100,000 population, respectively. This was followed by colorectal cancer (14.7 per 100,000) and prostate cancer (9.5 per 100,000) in men, and breast cancer (13.6 per 100,000) and colorectal cancer (13.6 per 100,000) in women. 8.1). A similar pattern was seen in the UK.

Researchers carry out a more detailed analysis of lung cancer cases and find that lung cancer mortality among women in the UK drops by 13.8%, but still has a higher death rate of 16.2 per 100,000 than women in the EU Did. They suggest this is because the British woman started smoking earlier than her EU woman.

The team also predicts a decline in male mortality in all six countries assessed, but an increase in female mortality of nearly 14% in France, 5.6% in Italy and 5% in Spain.

Age-stratified analyzes showed up to a 36% reduction in predicted lung cancer mortality between ages 25 and 64, but an increase of approximately 10% for those aged 65 and over, resulting in a reduction in mortality. (0.74%). overall increase.

“This suggests that women aged 45 to 65 today who were born in the 1960s and 1970s smoked less than women born in the 1950s, and were more likely to smoke in the 1970s, when smoking was most prevalent among young women. They quit smoking earlier than women in their teens.” Study co-leader Professor Eva Negri of the University of Bologna.

Steady declines are projected for colorectal, breast, prostate, leukemia, stomach cancer in both men and women, and bladder cancer in men, but the researchers said: colorectal cancer worry.

“This is of concern as an increase in both incidence and mortality from colorectal cancer in young women has been recorded in the UK. can be partially explained by

The researchers calculated that more than 5.8 million cancer deaths were averted in the EU between 1989 and 2023, compared to the peak rate in 1988.

La Vecchia says: In addition, greater efforts are needed to control overweight, obesity, diabetes, alcohol consumption and the spread of infectious diseases, along with improved screening, early diagnosis and treatment. ”

He added: “Advancements in tobacco control are reflected in positive trends in lung cancer, but there is still more to come in this regard as mortality from lung cancer continues to rise, especially among women. Between 1989 and 2023, no deaths from lung cancer in women were averted in both EU-27 countries and the UK.”

“Pancreatic cancer is also cause for concern, as deaths from the disease will not decline for men, but will rise by 3.4% for women in the EU and 3.2% for women in the UK. 1, and women, especially middle-aged and older, did not quit smoking as quickly as men.”

The researchers say their estimates take into account the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, including delays in visits and procedures.

They argued that “to maintain and improve the positive trends in cancer mortality in the EU, it is necessary to raise tobacco prices uniformly across Europe, or to establish birth cohorts above which tobacco products cannot be purchased.” It is important that we continue to pursue tobacco control strategies, including defining them.

“Further research to identify at-risk populations (even among nonsmokers) for lung cancer screening will make this practice more feasible on a larger scale.”