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Study predicts a sharp rise in HIV, tuberculosis and malaria deaths within the COVID-19 pandemic


London (Reuters)-Monthly HIV, TB and malaria deaths surge in poor and middle-income countries as vulnerable health systems address severe turmoil from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a predictive study published Monday There is a possibility.

Deaths from the three diseases could increase by 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, over the next five years, with mortality impacts similar in magnitude to the direct impact of the coronavirus pandemic itself. Modeling research has revealed.

Professor Timothy Hallett of Imperial College said, “In countries where the burden of malaria is high and HIV and tuberculosis are widespread, even short-term disruptions can lead to millions of people relying on programs to control and treat these diseases. It can have catastrophic consequences for people.” London co-led the work.

He said that the knock-on effect of COVID-19 could reverse some of the key developments for these diseases over the last two decades, “and directly calculated the burden caused by the pandemic.” .. However, risks could be mitigated if the country maintains core health services and strives to take precautions against infections, Mr Hallett said.

The study, published in The Lancet Global Health Journal, uses disease-modeling predictions to detail possible scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the greatest impact on HIV affecting many patients. This is because I stopped taking antiretroviral AIDS drugs. Keep your illness under control.

Last week, the UN AIDS Agency and the World Health Organization warned of such an inventory shortage, saying more than one-third of the world’s countries are already at risk of running out of antiretroviral drugs.

As for malaria, studies have found that the greatest effect is due to the disordered distribution of insecticide-treated mosquito nets, preventing millions of people from getting infected with malaria-carrying mosquitoes.

Report by Kate Kelland, edited by Mark Heinrich


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