Health
Scientists say the second wave of coronaviruses during the winter may be “worse than the first” with the death of 120,000 British people
A second wave of coronavirus could cause 120,000 deaths in Britain in the winter, according to leading scientists advising the government.
A report commissioned by chief science adviser Sir Patrick Valence warns that the second wave could be more devastating than the first that put Britain in blockade in March. The report warns that mitigation measures need to be taken to offset the lethal second wave risk.
Between September 2020 and June 2021, hospitals could kill 120,000 Covid-19s, according to a study compiled by 37 scientists and scholars. This is consistent with the increasing demand due to normal winter pressure.
The report acknowledges that there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the Covid-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the next few months, but the R-rate rises from September to 1.7 Worst case scenario” is presented.
Worst-case scenarios do not consider the potential positive impact of government intervention, or the use of the drug dexamethasone in intensive care units, which has been shown to reduce mortality.
Possibilities, not predictions
Scientists involved in the study stressed that this was “not a prediction, but it could be,” and called for calmness.
“This model suggests that the new wave of Covid-19 this winter could lead to higher mortality,” said Stephen Holgate, a clinical professor of immunopharmacology at the Medical Research Council that led the study. However, this risk causes us to take immediate action.
“With relatively few Covid-19 cases at this time, this is an important opportunity to prepare for the worst that winter could hit us.”
The report recommends flu vaccination for vulnerable medical staff as one action to take before winter begins.
Professor Holgate also says that NHS Test and Trace says “In winter, because winter illnesses often show symptoms similar to Covid-19 because more people need to be tested. Warned that it needed to be “upscaled.”
Less serious scenarios
The report also showed other potential scenarios.
Research shows that an R rate of 1.1 could kill 1,300 hospitals between September and June, and an R rate of 1.5 could kill 74,800 hospitals. ..
“The modeling in this report represents a worst-case scenario that is not based on government action, and is not a prediction,” said a spokesman for the government.
“Thanks to the total power of the country, the virus is under control. But we remain vigilant, and the government has the resources needed to avoid the second peak overwhelming the NHS.” Guarantee.
“This includes extensive winter planning to protect the NHS and the care sector, larger trial capacity expansion, NHS Test and Trace to reach thousands, and focus on new therapies, and It includes the provision of billions of items of PPE to protect our health and society.
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