Health
Wales latest R numbers compared to England and Scotland
Wales has a low R value Coronavirus The UK according to the latest numbers.
According to the British government’s pandemic modeling organization SPI (M), UK R-values are currently 0.8-1.0, with viruses falling 4-0% daily.
R The numbers are the number of people in Covid-19 who have the virus.
If that number goes beyond 1 and stays there, the number of people infected with the virus will grow exponentially, killing an additional tens of thousands of people throughout the UK.
As long as the R value is less than 1, the number of people infected with the virus will continue to decline.
In Wales, R numbers are decreasing. The current estimates of fertility from SPI(M) are between 0.6 and 0.8 with a median estimate of 0.7.
This is lower than any of the regions of England listed here:
- Eastern England-0.8-1.0
- London-0.8-1.0
- Midland-0.7-1.0
- Northeast and Yorkshire-0.8-1.0
- Northwest-0.7-1.0
- Southeast-0.8-1.0
- Southwest-0.7-1.0
In Scotland, the R rate on 22 July was 0.6-0.9, but in Northern Ireland it was 0.5-0.9.
How important is the R value?
At the beginning of the crisis, the R rate was as high as 2, and in many cases, the R rate became a very important and useful measure.
However, in Wales, the R-rate has fallen below 1 for eight straight weeks in a row, with infections expected to decrease by up to 3% per day.
With a small number of samples, the R value is less useful because it can significantly distort the number in one or two new cases.
Therefore, the Welsh government isn’t using R-rates very often at the moment, and there is a list indicator we are looking into instead to determine if Wales needs to return to lockdown.
These indicators are designed to spot spikes before returning to full lockdown. This is damaging to both health and economy.
Welsh government health professionals use all kinds of data to make decisions. These are divided into circuit breakers and early warning indicators.
The early warning indicator is part of the data that informs the Welsh government that a case explosion may be in progress.
The circuit breaker is the point where immediate lockdown is required.
You can read more about These indicators here.
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