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Lloyds’ depressing message about British recovery is more than pessimism | Larry Elliott | business
When the UK had a much larger industrial base than today, ICI’s results were seen as a sign of how well things were going. As the times have changed, these days it is not a big company like ICI, but an expensive bank that plays the role of the economy.
There’s a good argument that what’s happening at the Lloyds Banking Group actually reflects what’s happening all over the UK, there’s a lot to worry about. Lloyds has a strong influence on the mortgage market, auto loans, credit cards and business loans. Almost focused on the UK.
So, if one reason the bank is increasing its provisions against future losses is an increased risk of mortgage defaults, then the Bank of England and the Treasury should start ringing the alarm bell. Likewise, the fact that many companies using governments have regained their loans left their account balances.
Nobody expected the results of the second quarter Lloyds Bank to be not terrible, and these predictions were justified with a pre-tax loss of 676m. What Rishi Sunak and Andrew Bailey expected were signs of a strong recovery in the second half of 2020.
There is not much evidence. Lloyds is more depressed about growth, unemployment and home prices than its competitor Barclays, and as the Treasury system cuts, the likelihood of rising unemployment increases, which can lead to mortgage problems.
Optimistic bent people can say that Lloyd tends to always take a conservative view when it comes to provisioning, and the loss is unlikely to be as big as expected. However, the company is hiding a bouncing loan for a reason. They are afraid of the harsh winter ahead.
Lack of steam to recover
Forget the Great Depression Don’t even consider the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. economy has more than 32% annual contracts in the worst three months of history.
That doesn’t mean that the world’s largest economy will shrink to a third this year. Due to the interesting way the United States suggests growth rates, activity between April and June is slightly less than the 10% drop in Germany, which is 8% of GDP.
US growth figures, as predicted by economists, have dimmed the disclosure of new claims for unemployment benefits. These have risen during the second week and better show what’s going on in the US economy right now. They suggest that steam is exhausted in the recovery that started in May.
The reason is clear. New cases in Covid-19 have more than doubled in the past six weeks, reaching 70,000 cases per day. As the number of deaths increased from 490 to 1,000 per day in early July, restrictions were tightened and consumers stopped spending. The result is a slowing economy and an increase in unemployment. When the current president wanted an election three months later
Homes for high street
As an upcoming sign, the group behind the John Lewis and Waitrose brands announced they are thinking of turning unwanted retail spaces into homes. Deli counter will be a master bedroom, trolley park bike rack.
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It’s the right approach and you’re more likely to activate your town center than the online sales tax currently being considered by the Treasury. The idea that you can solve structural problems before Covid-19 by doing more expensive shopping on Amazon is moonlight.
A better solution would be to turn the town center into a place where people live, socialize and spend money. This means that there are fewer supermarkets and department stores, and more homes.
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