Average life expectancy is expected to increase worldwide. Can India create more jobs and policies for the elderly?

By 2050, men worldwide are expected to live 4.9 years longer and women 4.2 years longer than they did in 2022, according to the latest results from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, published in the May issue of The Lancet. There is.
In India, the average life expectancy of women is expected to increase from 73.3 years in 2022 to 75.7 years in 2030 and 79.8 years in 2050, which is 2.4 years by 2030 and 6.5 years by 2050. reflects the growth of Similarly, men are expected to live longer. , Average life expectancy will increase from 69.6 years in 2022 to 72.0 years in 2030 and 76.2 years in 2050, resulting in an increase of 2.4 years by 2030 and 6.6 years by 2050.

Additionally, Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth (HALE), which estimates the average number of years a person can live in 'perfect health', is predicted to improve. For women, HALE is expected to increase from 61.4 years old in 2022 to 63.3 years old in 2030, to 65.9 years old in 2050, and by 2030 she will be 1.9 years old. , has been shown to increase by 4.5 years by 2050. Similarly, for men, HALE is predicted to increase from her age of 60.8. In 2022 he will have 62.7 years, in 2050 he will have 65.5 years, by 2030 he will have increased by 1.9 years and by 2050 he will have increased by 4.7 years.

These predictions suggest that both men and women in India will live longer and healthier lives. However, the data also showed that the gap between overall life expectancy and HALE is widening, especially for women. The gap for women in 2022 was 11.9 years, and is expected to widen to 12.4 years by 2030 and 13.9 years by 2050. For men, this gap is expected to widen from 8.8 years in 2022 to 9.3 years in 2030 and 10.7 years in 2030. 2050.

This widening gap suggests that although life expectancy is increasing, not all of that extra life is spent in good health. Countries that currently lag behind are expected to see the greatest increases in life expectancy, potentially narrowing global inequality, the study said.

Dr. Chris Murray, director of health metrics science at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), emphasized this trend. “In addition to increasing overall life expectancy, we found that disparities in life expectancy between regions also narrowed. This means that although health disparities between the highest and lowest income regions remain, they are It shows that the largest increase is expected to be in sub-Saharan Africa.

Key drivers of this upward trend include strengthened public health measures against cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, various communicable diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases (CMNN). However, there remains a significant burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and cancer, caused by factors such as obesity, hypertension and smoking.

Global average life expectancy at birth is projected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050. At the same time, global healthy life expectancy (HALE) is expected to increase from 64.8 years to 67.4 years. The study suggests a shift from years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD), with people living longer but potentially living in poorer health. This indicates that the number of years may have increased.

Health economists say that increasing life expectancy will have major implications for both the overall economy and health economics. From an economy-wide perspective, increasing life expectancy leads to a longer working age, leading to increases in labor supply, productivity, and economic output.

“People are likely to increase their savings to extend their retirement lives, leading to higher levels of investment in the economy. As individuals live longer, their spending patterns change, including healthcare, leisure, and retirement-related expenses. This can contribute to economic growth if the labor market and economy can adapt to an aging workforce and increased demand for services for older people, such as housing, health care and leisure activities. said Arup Mitra, professor of economics at the University of South Asia in New Delhi.

In terms of health economics, as life expectancy increases, medical costs generally increase. Older people require more medical care, leading to increased medical costs. But it will also foster growth in the medical sector, creating demand for medical services and professionals, and spurring innovation and investment in medical technology and medicines.

“Governments may face increased public health spending and may require reforms to health financing, insurance systems, and pension systems to sustainably manage costs. Long-term health costs There is also an emphasis on preventive care, wellness programs, and chronic disease management to reduce cancer and promote healthy aging,” Mitra said. “Increasing survival rates and reducing life expectancy is a major achievement for countries with short life expectancies. But these countries also create old-age benefits, strong support systems, and extensive capacity for job creation. We must prepare. The participation of older people in the labor market may increase, creating potential competition between younger and older workers. Huge preparations are required to meet the need for increased supply of ,” Mitra said.