Global study finds most major health risks are within personal control

GENEVA — Six of the top 10 risk factors for premature death and lost healthy years due to disability are within an individual's control, new data from the Institute of Health Sciences has revealed. Global Burden of Disease Survey 2021When you include malnutrition and air pollution, which are also influenced by human actions, that figure rises to 80 percent.

The study, the most comprehensive effort to date to quantify global health loss, aims to identify and address disparities in health systems. Its findings were discussed on Monday at the Centre for Global Health at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Geneva during a side event at the 77th World Health Assembly.

The top 10 risk factors identified for 2021 are malnutrition; Air pollutionThese include high blood pressure, smoking, unhealthy diet, high blood sugar, obesity, high cholesterol, kidney dysfunction and occupational hazards.

“Absent major health innovations, these factors are expected to remain important for decades to come.” Health Metrics and Evaluation Institute The study was conducted by IHME at the University of Washington. “If we intervene, we can change the global burden of disease.”

The study looked at 459 health outcomes and risk factors using data from more than 12,000 participants across 163 countries and regions. A total of 316,737 data sources were used, including government reports, surveys and health sector data.

The 2021 data was released later than usual due to the impact of the pandemic on the organization's operations. Dr. Gakidou stressed that the report not only addresses delays caused by the pandemic, but also highlights the growing challenges of collecting data from conflict zones, which has become increasingly important as global conflicts continue.

“We're struggling to get data from conflict countries and on people displaced by conflict or displaced naturally, and we know that conflict is making things worse,” she said. “This is an area of ​​great interest, but there are big gaps in the data.”

IHME aims to release 2023 data by December 2024 and 2024 data by November 2025, she noted.

The findings of the latest report “have profound implications for how we think about the future.” [countries] We need to improve our health system. [and] “Social Sector”

“This is a chart of hope,” Gakido said, pointing to a chart of major risk factors. “There is something we can do. [to reduce] A lot of them.”

Despite global progress, disparities in life expectancy persist

The GBD study finds that COVID-19 has had different effects on life expectancy around the world, but even after controlling for the impact of the pandemic, there are still disparities in gains in life expectancy across regions.

Between 1990 and 2021, life expectancy increased by 8.3 years in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania, while in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia it increased by just 2.1 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa still has the lowest life expectancy in the world, despite a 7.8-year improvement thanks to advances in the treatment of diarrhoea, pneumonia and infectious diseases and reduced neonatal mortality – and the gap between this region and the rest of the world has not narrowed significantly over the past 30 years.

Calypso Halkidou, financial director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, noted that just 15 countries, representing about 5 percent of the world's population, are responsible for 40 percent of the decline in global mortality, almost half of which is due to diseases such as tuberculosis, AIDS and malaria.

Dr Gakidou also highlighted that the lack of progress in tackling non-communicable diseases is a major factor in the region struggling to keep up with increases in life expectancy.

Deaths outnumber births in many countries

More than half of the countries surveyed are currently “below replacement” – meaning they are experiencing more deaths than births – and nearly all are projected to face this reality by 2100.

By 2100, more than 30% of births will occur in areas that the World Bank classifies as low-income, while births in middle- and high-income countries will fall by 20%.

“This has huge implications for where these babies are born and what they need to thrive, which could also have implications for migration and other trends around the world,” Gakidou said.

A new global health situation?

The discussion on data is The new global health landscapeWhat does this new landscape look like?

Mr. Halkidou speaking at the panel discussion Gakidou, The Lancet editor-in-chief Richard Horton agreed, while Haydn Wang, unit director for data, analytics and impact delivery at the World Health Organization, pointed to the need to change the global health “architecture”.

“I think we need to change the way things work to get different results,” she concluded.

But to envision a new outlook, “we need to be aware of how fragile our progress in improving people's health is,” Wang said.

“In just two years of the pandemic, we've lost a decade,” he said, signalling the importance of continuing to invest in public health.

As the session drew to a close, Gakido struck a more optimistic tone.

“People value health above all else, and I think the international community has shown that very visibly,” she said. “I think the new global health environment is one in which health continues to be the most important component of well-being, and where we care for people all over the world, regardless of their age, where they live, or what they do.”

Image credits: Marjan Hoffman, Global Burden of Disease Survey 2021.