Study finds risk of long COVID is decreasing but still significant

The risk of developing long COVID-19, a persistent and sometimes painful condition that lasts long after infection with the new coronavirus, has decreased since the pandemic began, especially among people who have been vaccinated, a new study finds.

But this decline does not mean that the risk of long-term COVID-19 has disappeared. And especially in times like these, as the data shows, an increase in new cases could be a sign of a slowdown in the number of cases. Infectivity increases, Even if prevalence is low, it means many Americans are at risk of continuing to suffer from symptoms for months or years after their initial infection has cleared.

“We have long COVID-19 patients here in the clinic who have been severely affected, some of whom have become severely disabled,” said Dr. Ziyad Al Ali, director of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Healthcare System in Missouri.

The study, published Wednesday, New England Journal of Medicine, They found that 10.4% of people infected early in the pandemic suffered from long COVID symptoms a year after acute infection.

However, in the Omicron era that began in mid-December 2021, the mutant strain It became the mainstream version Among circulating coronaviruses around the world, 3.5% of vaccinated people had long-term COVID-19 one year after infection, as did 7.8% of unvaccinated people.

“This is good news,” said Al Ali, a co-author of the study. “Long COVID is on a downward trend. It's on a downward trend, and it's decreased over the course of the pandemic.”

However, Al Ali said it remains a concern that long COVID rates remain high, especially as COVID “still affects millions of people.”

“3.5 percent is not zero,” Al Ali said, “but it still means three or four people in every 100 have a potentially devastating disease.”

The study is based on health records held by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, which has data on more than 441,000 veterans who were infected with the coronavirus between March 1, 2020 and January 31, 2022, and monitored for a year after infection to track whether they experienced long COVID. Other co-authors are Yang Shi and Taeyoung Choi, both of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System.

If you become infected with the coronavirus, you could develop Long COVID, an umbrella term for a range of severe symptoms that can lead to chronic disability. Centers for Disease Control and PreventionSome people have suffered from long-term COVID-19 symptoms continuously since they were infected early in the pandemic, while others have symptoms that subside within a few months.

Long COVID Symptoms Symptoms include fatigue that interferes with daily life, a feeling of lightheadedness, and post-exertional fatigue that worsens with physical or mental effort. Long COVID can also cause a fast or pounding heart rate, dizziness when standing up, and depression and anxiety.

Millions of American adults and children Suffering or still suffering Long COVID.

There are several possible reasons why long COVID is now rarer than it used to be.

First, the coronavirus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2) has changed significantly since it was first identified in 2000. December 2019.

“We still call it COVID, but the reality is that COVID has morphed many times,” Al Ali said.

Al Ali said this could explain why “the risk is actually decreasing even among unvaccinated people,” adding that “the virus itself has weakened over time, even without the impact of the vaccine.”

But getting vaccinated further reduced the risk of developing long COVID-19, the study found.

“The vaccine has two effects: first, it reduces the severity of the infection,” Al Ali said.

Second, “they actually help the immune system to eliminate the virus faster,” Al Ali said. “They increase the immune system's ability to eliminate the virus, so there's less virus wreaking havoc on organs and body systems.”

Al-Ali said one of the leading theories about the root cause of long COVID-19 is that the new coronavirus remains in the body for a long time after the acute infection has ended, so if vaccination can help the immune system clear the virus more quickly, it could reduce the chances of developing the syndrome.

“We know that vaccine immunity weakens over time,” Al Ali said, “so make sure you keep your vaccinations up to date.”

The severity of Long COVID varies from person to person. Some people experience mild cognitive impairment and fatigue, but are able to carry out everyday tasks like taking their kids to school or walking their dog. Others suffer from “debilitating fatigue” so severe they can't even get out of bed… They literally can't run It is affecting their daily life activities,” Al Ali said.

According to the CDC, Long COVID can occur over weeks to months, persist, resolve, then return.

Other data suggest the incidence of long COVID has been declining since early in the pandemic: Based on survey data, the prevalence of long COVID among U.S. adults was 7.5% in early June 2022, decreasing to about 6% in early January 2023. report According to a CDC report released last summer, “prevalence rates have not changed” since then, through mid-June 2023, just before the report was released.

About 1 in 4 adults who reported having long-term COVID-19 infection in the survey said they had significant limitations in their usual activities, underscoring “the importance of COVID prevention, including staying up to date on recommended COVID-19 vaccines,” the report said.

COVID and long COVID remain a greater public health threat than influenza. Some people develop long-term complications after battling the flu, Al Ali said. “But there are definitely more COVID cases than influenza. So, odds are, you're much more likely to get COVID than you are to get the flu.”

Al Ali said that even now, more people are dying or being hospitalized from COVID than from the flu. The CDC estimates that at least 25,000 people have been infected with COVID. influenza At least 46,000 COVID-19 cases have died in the country since early October. Deaths (number) An updated estimate of deaths from the past flu season is expected this fall.

Aside from vaccination, another way to avoid long COVID-19 is to get tested when feeling unwell to confirm whether or not one has COVID-19. With a confirmed diagnosis, at-risk individuals can receive a prescription for the antiviral drug Paxlobid, which may reduce the severity of the infection and reduce the risk of long COVID-19, Al Ali said.

Another measure is to wear a mask in high-risk situations. Al-Ali said he wears an N95 mask when he's on a plane and strategically wears a mask in high-risk situations. He's also being extra vigilant about wearing a mask during the current rise in COVID-19 cases nationwide. Also, outdoor dining at a restaurant poses less risk than indoor dining.