Cost of four leading causes of death in England could reach £86 billion by 2050 | Cancer

The cost of England's four biggest killer diseases could rise to £86 billion a year by 2050, leading to growing calls for a crackdown on alcohol, junk food and smoking.

As the population ages, the annual costs of cancer, heart disease, dementia and stroke will rise from the £51.9 billion recorded in 2018 to £85.6 billion in 2050, a 61% increase.

Together, these four diseases account for 59% of all deaths and 5.1 million years of life lost.

The experts said: The Lancet Health and Longevity The journal shows that the new government must take decisive action to improve the health of its citizens if the costs of ill health are to be prevented from becoming astronomical.

“These projected costs should terrify the Treasury,” said Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Research suggests that as the over-65 population grows in the coming years, the cost of dementia alone will double to £23.5 billion, while the economic impact of stroke will increase by 85% to £16 billion.

Similarly, the cost of heart disease will rise by 54% to £19.6 billion, while the cost of cancer, the most expensive of the four diseases, will increase by 40% to £26.5 billion.

The estimates cover not only the money spent by the NHS and social care systems on them, but also the overall economic costs through lost productivity and informal care by relatives.

In its general election manifesto, Labour promised to “deliver new action to tackle the biggest killers – reducing life loss from cancer, cardiovascular disease and suicide and helping people live longer, healthier lives. Much of the avoidable health harm can be prevented.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has made it one of his priorities to position the NHS as a more preventative service.

The study, led by Dr Ramon Luengo-Fernandez from the Nuffield School of Population Health at the University of Oxford and funded by Alzheimer's Research UK, came to its conclusion after examining population-level ageing projections up to 2050 and detailed NHS records showing how often around 4.2 million people receive medical care.

He said ministers should strive to help people stay healthier for longer and ensure that many people develop life-shortening diseases closer to the end of their lives, rather than decades earlier than they currently do.

“We can't prevent all cases. [of these diseases] “We all have to die from some disease at some point,” Luengo Fernández said. “In my opinion, what we should focus on is preventing diseases from a young age, so that if diseases like dementia or stroke occur, they occur at the end of life, in our 90s, for example, and not in our 60s or 70s.”

“Better diet, better physical activity [and] Smoking cessation would go a long way towards achieving this. If we have been able to bring down smoking rates from over 50% today to around 13%, I see no reason why we can't achieve the same results in other areas.”

“Significantly increasing the amount of physical activity people get could improve their health and reduce the burden of disease and its associated costs,” he said. Putting more resources into primary care, including GP services, would help with early cancer detection and reduce the costs of treatment.

According to Cancer Research UK, the number of new cancer diagnoses per year is The number is expected to increase from the current 420,000 to 506,000 by 2040.The number of people diagnosed with all forms of dementia is also expected to increase significantly.

The four biggest increases by 2050 will be in social care costs of caring for people with these conditions: dementia is set to rise 110% to £13.5 billion a year, stroke 109% to £7.1 billion, heart disease 91% to £4.4 billion and cancer 88% to £2.9 billion.

Mr McKee called for a crackdown on industries that produce tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy food, as well as a new approach to poverty. “For more than a decade the UK has been competing with the US for the bottom spot in health among developed countries and this paper shows why this cannot continue,” he said.

“If the country is to break away from the vicious cycle of declining productivity, which is driven in large part by poor health and increasing demands on the NHS, we must prioritise not just the causes of illness but action on the causes themselves – high levels of poverty and the industries such as alcohol, tobacco and junk food that profit from this misery.”

Department health A Department for Social Care spokesman said: “We recognise that the health of our nation and our economy are inextricably linked, which is why we are taking bold action to improve the NHS and tackle the causes of disease.”

“Prevention is better than cure, which is why governments are shifting the focus of healthcare from treating illnesses to preventing them in the first place.”

“Whether it's phasing out the sale of tobacco, cracking down on junk food advertising or doubling the number of scanners so the NHS can again detect cancer earlier, we are committed to enabling people to live longer and healthier lives and unlocking the potential of our economy.”