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Long Covid: High economic burden justifies further prevention efforts

Long Covid: High economic burden justifies further prevention efforts
Long Covid: High economic burden justifies further prevention efforts

 


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The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic is causing both acute illness and long-term debilitating symptoms: Long Covid. Long Covid also reduces worker productivity, resulting in economic damage. A recent analysis suggests that Long Covid may be costing the Australian economy around 0.5% of GDP through reduced productivity. In Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), this GDP loss equates to around NZ$2 billion per year. Robust local data and economic analysis on lost productivity and other costs such as healthcare utilization are needed to determine the cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions.

Nevertheless, the New Zealand Government can take immediate steps to reduce this shared health and economic burden by improving COVID-19 vaccination eligibility and coverage, and strengthening interventions to reduce community transmission of COVID-19, such as improving ventilation and air filtration in workplaces, schools and other public places.

This briefing examines overseas evidence on the economic impacts of Long Covid, considers the potential impacts in the New Zealand context and outlines measures the New Zealand Government can take to mitigate these costs.

Long Corona: It is recognized that there is a significant impact on the health of the nation

Long COVID refers to continued changes in health for months or years after infection with COVID-19.1 Long-Covid affects multiple organs and systems in the body and can affect people of any age. Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive impairment that can lead to impaired memory and attention. Even moderate symptoms can interfere with daily tasks.2 (Our Previous Long Corona Briefing For more information please click here.

Globally, the population prevalence of symptomatic long COVID is estimated to be approximately 6-7% of all adults..1 Many affected people are unable to work and drop out of the labor force altogether.1-3 Those who remain in the workforce may be less productive and may need additional support to perform their roles (See Appendix We further discuss the types of impacts that Long COVID will have on the workforce and the estimated prevalence of these impacts. These impacts will be felt across businesses, healthcare,4 and education sectors, and the economy as a whole.

International evidence on economic costs

While New Zealand has not conducted robust analysis of the spread of Long Covid and loss of productivity, international estimates of the impact on the economy are concerning. These include: The surrounding area GDP loss of £1.5 to £2.7 billion In the UK in 2030, due to declining productivity and reallocation of medical resources, Total economic and social welfare costs are $864 billion to $1.04 trillion For the OECD as a whole, this is annual. Economist Impact GDP losses from Long Covid in 2024 are estimated to be between 0.5% and 2.3% (average 1.0%, median 0.6%) across eight high-income countries.

Of particular relevance to New Zealand, Australian researchers have conducted a detailed economic analysis of how long-Covid-related labour force reductions have affected productivity and GDP from 2022 to 2024. Just published study5 Suggests that a long COVID-19 pandemic could damage the Australian economy AUD 9.6 billion (95% CI: $4.7 billion to $15.2 billion)equivalent 0.5% of Australia's GDPImportantly, this estimate is likely conservative (See Appendix).

Potential costs for New Zealand

Given Similarities The impact of the pandemic on New Zealand and Australia is such that a long COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a comparable economic impact. New Zealand's GDP (NZ$410 billion The gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year ending March 2024 faces a decline of 0.5% due to the effects of the long COVID-19 pandemic, as seen in Australia, which is about 2 billion New Zealand dollars Annually.

The above estimates and evidence that Long Covid is impacting productivity in Aotearoa come from survey results which show that Long Covid is putting a huge strain on worker productivity. Long COVID Registry Aotearoa The report found that people who felt they had a long corona life worked between 7.3 and 9.4 hours less per week in 2023/4 compared to before the pandemic. In addition to this reduction in working hours, between 61% and 71% of respondents reported presenteeism (working despite feeling unwell).

What should the New Zealand Government do?

It is clear that decisive action is needed. Global evidence shows that both the health and economic burden of Long Covid in New Zealand is likely to be high. Remaining high infection rates mean that every week a new cohort of New Zealanders joins the Long Covid draw. The three key actions are:

  • PreventionThe New Zealand Government must take further steps to reduce the risk and incidence of Long Covid. This requires the following actions:
    • Reduce the number of cases Use well-proven public health and social measures (including indoor ventilation and the use of masks where appropriate), with a focus on settings such as schools, hospitals and public transport where there is a high risk of COVID-19 transmission and where sector-level impacts are already being felt.
    • Improving vaccination rates this is Greatly reduce risk Incidence of Long COVID in adults and children after COVID-19 infection.6-8 New Zealand's COVID-19 vaccine strategy should reflect this knowledge, focus on high-risk occupations and immediately extend regular booster vaccinations to younger people. teacher.
  • Professional and social support Occupational support can include extended sick leave policies, workplace accommodations to improve productivity, workplace safety assessments, and comprehensive rehabilitation programs to help affected people return to work. Social support Must be provided For those who can't work.
  • Strengthen economic analysis and research. Robust field studies are needed to quantify the true number and costs of Covid-19 and Long Covid in New Zealand, building on other New Zealand studies to assess worker productivity losses due to ill health.9-11 These studies should include comparisons with appropriate control groups (e.g. people with a history of COVID-19 but without long COVID-19).twenty threeWithout accurate data, it will be difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions about how to efficiently and fairly protect New Zealanders from the health and economic harms of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

Long Covid is not just a health crisis; it also imposes a huge economic burden. As other countries have shown, the impacts of Long Covid on workforce participation, productivity and overall economic performance are enormous. New Zealand has yet to conduct its own detailed analysis, but this is clearly necessary. In the meantime, the New Zealand Government needs to further invest in preventative approaches using evidence-based measures to reduce the unsustainably high incidence of acute Covid-19 infections and Long Covid.

What's new in this briefing?

  • In addition to the health costs, Long Covid will generate a range of costs for society through lost workforce and productivity.
  • A new Australian study puts the impact at a conservative estimate of 0.5% of GDP, or AUD9.6 billion. In New Zealand's context, this equates to an annual economic loss of around NZD2 billion.

Implications for policy and practice

New Zealand needs to develop an appropriate strategic, evidence-based response to the continued high levels of COVID-19 cases. Key measures include:

  • Use well-proven public health measures (such as improving ventilation) to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases, expand COVID vaccine eligibility and coverage, and ensure these protections are in place for workers and sectors at higher risk of COVID-19 and Long COVID.
  • Strengthen occupational supports across all sectors to protect health and occupational performance, including providing formal screening and support in occupations where occupational performance impacts safety.
  • Given our unique situation, we will conduct comprehensive research and economic modelling on acute COVID-19 infection and the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 to quantify the true value of preventative measures.

Author details

Associate Professor Amanda KvalsvigPublic Health Department | Public Health Department
University of Otago | Otakao Waikaboat

Dr. John CarrScientific Leader, Centre for Public Health Communication, School of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington

Professor Paula LorgeryUniversity of Auckland | Leaf-Level Water

Professor Nick WilsonCo-Director, School of Public Health and Centre for Public Health Communication, University of Otago, Wellington

Professor Michael BakerDirector, School of Public Health and Centre for Public Health Communication, University of Otago, Wellington

appendix: The impact of a long COVID-19 pandemic on the workforce: What the evidence tells us

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.phcc.org.nz/briefing/long-covid-high-economic-burden-justifies-further-preventive-efforts

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