UK faces 'tsunami of missed cancers' due to pandemic, experts say | Cancer

Leading experts have warned that the UK can expect a “tsunami of missed cancers” after an international study found a steep fall in cancer diagnoses during the pandemic.

Provisional figures from the International Bureau of Statistics cancer The benchmarking partnership, presented to delegates at the World Cancer Congress in Geneva, compared data on cases and stages of cancer diagnoses in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK before and during the pandemic.

The findings show that the UK saw the largest and most sustained declines in diagnoses of lung, breast, bowel and skin cancer in 2020. Data for Northern Ireland and Wales in particular shows how badly these countries are faring compared with the other countries surveyed. (Data for England and Scotland are still being compiled, but were expected to be as bad as the rest of the UK.)

All countries reported a decline in diagnosed cases at the peak of the pandemic, but most saw increases again within a year. In contrast, Wales and Northern Ireland had not recovered their diagnosis rates by the end of 2020.

The study found that between April and July 2020, breast cancer diagnoses fell by 35% in Northern Ireland and Wales, compared with a 24% drop in Norway and a 14% drop in Denmark. For lung cancer, there was a 16% drop in Northern Ireland and Wales over the same period, compared with a 10% drop in Norway and 1% in New Zealand.

In the most affected months, 44% of breast cancer cases and 30% of lung cancer cases were missed in Northern Ireland and Wales. There was also a steep fall in bowel cancer diagnoses.

The decline in diagnosed cases has been greatest for early stage cancers, partly due to the cessation of screening programmes: Stage 1 breast cancer diagnoses fell by 44% and 51% in Northern Ireland and Wales, respectively.

Cancer experts said they expect more patients to be diagnosed with more advanced, terminal cancers as a result of the significant drop in diagnoses.

“These data are a shocking wake-up call and provide important evidence that there is a sharp rise in missed cancers in the UK, which could lead to more aggressive and more difficult to treat aggressive cancers,” said Mark Lawler, professor of digital health at Queen's University Belfast and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. “The fact that we are still some way from reaching the 62-day target for cancer treatment only compounds the problem further.”

Professor Pat Price, leading oncologist and co-founder of the Catch up with Cancer campaign, said: “These figures are a timely and dire reminder of the enormous cancer crisis. Without urgent action, more patients will be diagnosed at a later stage and more will have their treatment delayed.”

“Before the pandemic we were at the bottom of the cancer league table and, as this study shows, we simply haven’t recovered from diagnostic delays – but Lord Darge’s new research shows that this doesn’t have to be the case. National Health Service Report highlights: “If there was ever a time to develop and implement a cancer recovery-specific plan, it's now.”

Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: “These findings suggest that the UK healthcare system is less resilient and more vulnerable to the impacts of COVID-19 than countries such as New Zealand. This could have serious consequences for cancer patients who face delayed diagnoses as a result of overstretched services.”

Department health A Department for Social Care spokesman said: “We recognise the additional pressures on the NHS during the pandemic, but it is unacceptable that so many people have had to wait so long for a cancer diagnosis and treatment.”

“Lord Darge's report revealed just how serious delays remain for patients waiting for a cancer diagnosis and this government is determined to change that with our 10-year plan to reform the NHS and fit it for the future.”

“If the NHS can detect cancer earlier, diagnose it earlier and treat it more quickly, more patients will survive this terrible collection of diseases and we will improve the patient experience across the system.”