Will an avian influenza outbreak cause a pandemic or lockdown? Experts explain

H5 avian influenza, a type of avian influenza, has infected dozens of people in the United States this year and has caused concern for months. Now, with a new human case in Canada (the country's first), concerns are growing, especially that the virus could spark a new pandemic and lockdowns.

A teenager who tested positive for bird flu is in critical condition and being treated for acute respiratory distress at a British Columbia children's hospital. CBC reported.

The patient, whose gender, age and identity have not been released, “was a previously healthy teenager” with no underlying health conditions, said Dr. Bonnie Henry, the province's health officer. said at a press conference.

It added that the teenager had no contact with birds or other domestic animals, but had been around dogs, cats and reptiles. The source of infection is under investigation.

Tests confirmed that the patient was infected with H5N1. Published by the Public Health Agency of Canadaa strain that infects birds, poultry, mammals, and humans.

Could it ultimately cause the next pandemic? Here's what you need to know.

What is avian influenza?

Like humans, birds can get influenza, and the avian influenza viruses that make birds sick can also infect other animals, such as cows, and in rare cases, humans. National Library of Medicine I will explain.

H5 is a family of avian influenza viruses. Influenza is widespread in wild birds around the world and has caused outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cattle. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Note. Some farm workers who came into contact with these animals have become ill.

H5 has nine subtypes, including the H5N1 strain that is responsible for the recent illness.

Is there an outbreak of bird flu?

During the 2024 outbreak, there have been 46 confirmed human infections in the United States. According to the CDC. Reported in California, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Texas, and Washington state.

“Human transmission of H5N1 is indeed occurring,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Almost all patients had contact with infected cattle or poultry. The only exception — patients in missouri — No known animal exposures. Human-to-human transmission has not been confirmed.

According to the CDC, the current public health risk from H5 avian influenza is low. But authorities, as well as experts in the field, are “closely monitoring the situation.”

Dr. Ian Lipkin, an expert on emerging viral threats, says this is an important health concern.

“Emerging infectious diseases are unpredictable. If you had told me 20 years ago that there would be a big problem with coronavirus, I would not have been able to predict it,” Mailman Public Health, Columbia University Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology at the Graduate School, told TODAY.com.

“So no one knows what's going to happen with this flu.”

According to the CDC, human infection with avian influenza occurs when the virus enters a person's eyes, nose, or mouth, or is inhaled. The disease may be Ranges from mild to severe And it can be deadly.

Adalja points out that the number of human H5N1 infections in the United States is relatively mild, likely because people are infected primarily through the eyes.

For example, it can occur when a dairy worker gets milk splashed on his face while milking an infected cow.

“It's transmitted through the eyes, not through the respiratory route,” Adalja told TODAY.com. He added that if the virus could reach the lungs, it could be “less dangerous than respiratory inhalation.”

Is it possible for bird flu to become a pandemic?

Both experts say it's unlikely this Certain strains of avian influenza can cause pandemics because they do not have the ability to spread efficiently between humans.

H5N1 has been infecting humans since 1997 and has taken time to evolve, Adalja said, but that doesn't mean it's easily transmitted from person to person.

“I don't think this is the highest risk strain of avian influenza,” he says. “We can't say there's no risk. But with bird flu viruses, the risk is low.”

Lipkin held similar views.

“Nobody likes to say never, because they can be wrong,” he warns. “Could this virus evolve to become more transmissible? Yes. Has it ever been able to do that? No. Personally, do I think it will cause the next pandemic? No. , Maybe? Yes.

Since there are many different strains of bird flu, one of them could cause a pandemic at some point in the future, Adalja added.

Is there a possibility of a lockdown due to bird flu?

Again, both experts say this strain is unlikely because H5N1 poses no threat to the general public.

Adalja said if the situation were to change, people should realize that lockdowns like those during COVID-19 are not the “go-to tool” for infectious disease emergencies. He called lockdowns “a very insensitive tool.”

Instead, he said proactive measures, such as more aggressive testing of livestock, will allow health authorities to better stop the spread of infection.

There is also the question of how far authorities are willing to go when it comes to lockdowns.

“If H5N1 becomes a major health problem, we will need to talk about (containment),” Lipkin said.

“But I don’t think the next administration will follow suit.”

Is there a vaccine for bird flu?

According to , four vaccine candidates for dairy cattle have been approved for field trials. US Department of Agriculture.

In poultry, trials of four avian influenza vaccines began in 2023. Reuters reported.

As for humans, CDC says The US government is developing a vaccine against the H5N1 virus “in case it is needed.”

The agency added that it has an H5 vaccine candidate virus that can be used to make vaccines for people, and that preliminary analysis shows it “promises good protection” against H5N1.

Adalja said there are also several vaccines in the national strategic stockpile that closely, if not exactly, match this particular avian influenza strain.

“Efforts are underway to produce more modern vaccines, but at this time no widespread vaccination program against H5N1 has begun in the United States,” he notes.

Bird flu symptoms and prevention

of CDC I will list the following Bird flu symptoms:

• bloodshot eyes
• Mild flu-like upper respiratory symptoms
• fever or feeling feverish
• cough
• sore throat
• runny or stuffy nose
• muscle pain or body aches
• headache
• fatigue
• shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
• Pneumonia requiring hospitalization
• Diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, seizures (these are less common symptoms).

Adalja said those most at risk from H5N1 avian influenza are dairy and poultry workers who may be in close contact with infected animals. The CDC advises that people should wear personal protective equipment when working on farms affected by the virus.

As for the general public, Lipkin says, because H5N1 is present in raw milk, “don't consume raw milk. Avoid it completely.” Pasteurized milk can eliminate the risk of infection, he points out.

Properly cooked chicken is safe to eat, but wash your hands with soap and water after handling raw chicken, he added.

Adalja added that it may be wise to avoid petting zoos and events where you can learn how to milk a cow.

The CDC advises avoiding direct contact with sick or dead wild birds, poultry, and other animals.