Health
Climate change is driving record numbers of dengue cases
Dengue fever is a potentially deadly virus spread by mosquitoes, sweeping the Americasthe infection rate has soared to new records.
The main reason for the rapid increase in the number of infected people is the rise in global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions. new research is shown.
One in every five dengue infections in the Americas and Southeast Asia, researchers from the University of Maryland, Harvard University and Stanford University presented on Saturday at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene in New Delhi. Nearby is said to have been caused by climate change. Orléans.
The latest data is Pan American Health Organization This represents nearly 7,500 deaths and more than 12.3 million infections over the first 10 months of 2024. This is three times the number of infections in 2023, which was a record setting at the time.
“Dengue is truly having its biggest year ever,” said Dr. Gabriela Paz-Bailey, director of the dengue branch of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, based in Puerto Rico. “Dengue cases are increasing at an alarming rate around the world.”
Pass-Bailey said the surge in cases is causing concern in the United States, particularly in Puerto Rico, where authorities estimate up to 50% of cases result in hospitalization. The US almost recorded 7,300 people have been infected this yearcompared to 1,462 people in 2023. Most of these cases have occurred in Puerto Rico, which Public health emergency this spring And we are still under a state of emergency.
In the continental United States, infection rates are not much higher than they were in the early 2010s. But officials are concerned about predictions of a warming climate.
Most people infected with dengue fever do not show any symptoms, but those infected may develop a high fever, body aches, nausea, and a rash. Depending on the infection, it may lead to hospitalization or death.
In severe cases, about 1 in 20 infected people usually develop internal bleeding, or bleeding from the nose or mouth, and go into shock. Infants, the elderly, and pregnant women are most at risk of serious illness.
There are four types of dengue virus. People who have been infected with one of these viruses may have limited immunity to some of these viruses. People can be exposed to different strains and outbreaks can flare up again. Repeated infections can cause severe dengue fever.
Climate change is already causing record increases in dengue fever
new study Statistics from the University of Maryland, Harvard University, and Stanford University did not include the benchmark 2024 spike. However, it turns out that climate change has accelerated the spread of dengue as temperatures rise.
The study found that climate change is responsible for 19% of dengue infections in the Americas and parts of Southeast Asia. Infection rates were significantly higher in areas thought to be too cold for the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which carries dengue fever and other diseases.
By 2050, climate change could increase the number of infections by 40% to 57% above current levels. Researchers determined that dengue fever would affect more than 257 million people in cool urban areas in Bolivia, Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, where the climate is expected to warm.
“This suggests that we need to think about pandemic preparedness, especially in regions of the world that are vulnerable to increases in dengue due to climate change,” said study co-author and director of the institute. said postdoctoral researcher Mallory Jessica Harris. University of Maryland Health Computing Institute. “We've seen these very large dengue outbreaks again and again in the past few years.”
The researchers also shared future predictions based on an analysis of 21 countries using an average of 11 years of records for each country. The study did not include sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia, which are also affected by dengue infections. It also did not include data from the continental United States.
The study found that temperatures around 82 degrees Fahrenheit are optimal for the mosquitoes that transmit dengue fever. Temperatures are predicted to rise above that range in some areas, making it harder for infected mosquitoes and other organisms to survive. Unfortunately, this study shows that large areas of the Americas will reach optimal temperatures in the coming decades. In previously cool regions, where temperatures are expected to rise to ideal temperatures for dengue transmission, cases could increase by 150-200%.
This includes several cities in the Americas, such as Lima, Peru, which saw an unprecedented increase in dengue infections in 2024. This year, the U.S. Department of State health warning Regarding dengue fever infection in Lima. Infections tend to increase during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere and during the winter in North America.
During warm winters in southern regions, infected mosquitoes are able to survive seasons that would normally kill the mosquito population.
Urbanization and poverty are also contributing factors to the rise in dengue fever
Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said climate change is not the only explanation for the continued rise in dengue fever.
Urbanization, deforestation and poverty also play a role in creating an environment suitable for infected mosquitoes, Hotez said. This phenomenon could impact the United States, including fast-growing regions across the Sunbelt.
“We should not discount the possibility that arboviruses, especially dengue fever, may occur routinely in the southern United States,” Hotez said, citing Texas, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast.
People living in poverty often do not have air conditioning or window and door screens to keep their rooms cool and keep mosquitoes out. There are also no efficient sanitation facilities to remove standing water that could breed mosquitoes and infect nearby people.
The resumption of travel after the COVID-19 pandemic is also contributing to the record increase in dengue infections in the United States, which could get worse in the future, CDC's Paz Bailey said. said. Once an infected person enters the United States, local mosquitoes can bite them, infecting them with the virus, and potentially transmitting it to others nearby.
As conditions continue to warm across much of the United States, localized outbreaks will continue, which already happened in 2016. California And Florida.
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, help maintain mosquito habitat. Water builds up after a storm, creating a breeding ground for mosquitoes.
Vaccines are in short supply, but modifying mosquitoes holds promise
There are several measures we can take to reduce infection. The study's emphasis is on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases that raise temperatures.
Vaccines can also help, but none are readily available. Access is limited in the U.S., with only a limited number of last remaining doses of vaccine available. Denvaxiawas approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2019 and is scheduled to expire in 2026. Sanofi, which manufactures it, plans to stop producing the vaccine in 2025.
If we can detect more mosquitoes that carry the disease, we can prevent outbreaks in advance. But reducing the environment in which mosquitoes breed is especially difficult because they only need as much water as a bottle cap to incubate their eggs.
The researchers instead turned to manipulating mosquitoes to prevent the spread of dengue fever. Infecting mosquitoes with the Wolbachia bacterium dramatically reduced dengue fever, according to a study recently shared by researchers from the World Mosquito Program in the Brazilian city of Niterói, near Rio de Janeiro. But researchers acknowledge that it will take years for such prevention programs to be effective in maintaining safer mosquito populations.
Kristi Ebi, a professor at the University of Washington's Center for Health and the Global Environment, said historical context can help prepare for current and expected outbreaks. of CDC was founded nearly 80 years ago It has proven successful in preventing mosquito-borne diseases and combating malaria and yellow fever.
Ebi said greater preparedness was essential because “people are suffering and dying today because of climate change.”
people can prevent disease By avoiding mosquito bites. This includes covering arms and legs with protective, loose-fitting clothing and spraying with insect repellent.
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