IHME research reveals significant progress and gaps in the global fight against HIV/AIDS

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has published a new study. Lancet HIV The journal highlights important progress in the global fight against HIV/AIDS and shows that current trends keep the world off track to achieve UNAIDS' ambitious 2030 goals. A stern warning was posted.

This study analyzed the global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2050. The results highlight the mixed situation of achievements and challenges in the battle.

Between 2010 and 2021, the number of new HIV infections decreased from 2.1 million to 1.7 million, and the number of HIV-related deaths decreased from 1.2 million to 718,000. Despite this progress, researchers found regional variations in the response to HIV, and UNAIDS' 2030 goal is for the world to reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%. predicted that they were not on track to achieve their goals.

Sub-Saharan Africa leads the world in reducing new HIV infections and deaths from HIV infection

The global decline in HIV incidence is driven primarily by sub-Saharan Africa, where the likelihood of lifetime HIV infection has fallen by 60% since its peak in 1995. The region also achieved the greatest population decline, despite unchecked levels of HIV. (PUV), from 19.7 million in 2003 to 11.3 million in 2021.

In contrast, in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the lifetime probability of HIV infection increased from 0.4% to 2.8% between 1995 and 2021, and PUV rose by 310,000 between 2003 and 2021. This has increased from 680,000 to 680,000.

Dr. Hamwe Kyu, IHME Associate Professor and study author, said: “While the world has made remarkable progress globally to significantly reduce the number of new HIV infections and the number of lives lost to the disease, there are still challenges to overcome. There are still issues that need to be addressed.” “More than one million people acquire new HIV infections each year, and a quarter of the 40 million people living with HIV are not receiving treatment,” she added.

Despite progress, UNAIDS 2030 targets for reducing HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths will not be met

Although significant progress has been made in reducing HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality, the world remains on track to meet the United Nations' 2030 goal of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%. Not reached.

The number of people living with HIV is expected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039 and then gradually decline to 43.4 million by 2050.

“The international community must focus on prevention, optimize access to antiretroviral therapy, and ensure widespread access to HIV testing to achieve rapid diagnosis and linkage to treatment. Substantial efforts must be made,” Dr. Kyu said.

The number of new HIV infections and deaths related to the disease is expected to continue to decline globally. However, long-term increases are predicted in North Africa and the Middle East, where only 67% of people with HIV are aware of their status, 50% of those on ART and 50% of those on ART are virally suppressed. 45% of people do.

The number of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is decreasing globally, but increasing in some countries and regions. Our analysis will inform countries' sustained responses to HIV, including expanding access to life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART), effective prevention options, and innovative care models. The purpose is to. ”

Austin Carter, IHME Research Scientist

The study authors make a series of recommendations to sustain and revitalize the global HIV response, including strengthening the US President's Emergency Plan for HIV Response (PEPFAR) and other similar public health programs, and expanding prevention. is set. Services using a number of existing and emerging technologies. Additionally, research interventions and care delivery models that effectively and equitably, with a particular focus on measuring progress and addressing remaining gaps in our collective goal of ending the HIV epidemic, Must be implemented.

New research findings and recommendations from the GBD 2021 HIV Collaborators serve as a call to action for governments, health care providers, and the global community to renew their commitment to ending the HIV epidemic. Only through sustained, comprehensive and equitable efforts can the world achieve the UNAIDS 2030 goals and ultimately eliminate HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.