Many “flu” cases in Seattle this winter were actually Covid-19, research results

start Of the covid-19 pandemic in the US Much bigger than official records show, according to new research.. researcher A large portion of people, including children, In Seattle Who was Suspected of having influenza in the past Winter probably had covid-19 instead.. By the beginning of March, when more than 100 cases were reported in the state, the city estimated that there were thousands of cases.

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin Looking back on two different periods on the earliest day of the pandemic: the week of January and late February in Wuhan, China. Early March, Seattle, Washington.. They examined data from hospitals and doctors’ offices that collected samples of pharyngeal swabs from outpatients diagnosed with influenza-like symptoms. These samples were later re-analyzed for the presence of coronavirus causing covid-19.

In both cities, most of these cases turned out to be influenza, more than a third were actually covid-19 in Wuhan, One Every 10 The team concluded that the Seattle incident was covid-19. Based on known trends in the influenza season in both regions, the researchers created a model of how fast and widespread covid-19 spread during the first few weeks.

It was estimated that Seattle had already 9,000 cases by March 9, with less than 200 cases due to city blockades such as school closures. report Overall condition; Of these, thousands of children may be involved. Wuhan also had more than 12,000 cases by January 22, with the Chinese government Was locked down The official case is over 400. They also estimated that people had spread the virus by the first week of January, and probably early Christmas, but the first Wuhan incident occurred between late October and early December.

The survey results are Release Journal E Clinical Medicine.

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Other studies as well placed The onset of the pandemic is much older than the official records indicate (the first case detected in U.S.., In Washington, January 15th). But this study not only traces the origin of the outbreak in the United States back to January 15This spread also suggests that the first hotspot was much wider than we knew. And this winter, the researchers’ method of comparing influenza to covid-19 cases is: The case of covid-19 was mistaken for flu in other parts of the United States that were earlier affected by a pandemic, such as New York City and California.

“A combination of research techniques and modeling can be used to piece together the history of this pandemic.” statement Freed by college. “This helps us understand how a pandemic spread rapidly around the world and provides insights into what may be seen in the coming weeks and months.”

This study has its limitations. The model estimates are based on a number of assumptions, such as how many people can carry the virus without disease (asymptomatic patients). When 50% of all cases are asymptomatic, the number of teams actually underestimates the extent of covid-19 spread in Seattle and Wuhan, as found in some studies.

But, in combination with other studies, this study is just the latest in how the truly unprepared United States was prepared for a pandemic. After 6 months or more.

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