As bird flu concerns grow, don't forget normalcy bias

In avian influenza cause fear When a new pandemic emerges, it is useful to remember how few government, business, and individual decision-makers were able to respond effectively to the previous pandemic.

The main culprit is normalcy bias.

Normalcy bias leads people to underestimate the likelihood of a disruptive event and its potential impact. It leads to the dangerous assumption that the future will function the same way as the past, despite clear evidence to the contrary. This bias is common across many sectors, but its effects can be devastating in the business world, especially in today's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment.

One of the most notable recent examples of normalcy bias is the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite early warnings from epidemiologists, many companies were unprepared for supply chain disruptions, changes in consumer behavior, and subsequent workforce challenges. Businesses that ignored the pandemic as a temporary disruption faced severe operational and financial consequences, while those that quickly adapted to the “new normal” managed to thrive.

Similarly, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has exposed instances of normalcy bias. For years, traditional industry executives ignored AI as a distant concern, only to find their sectors turned upside down by rapid advances in technology.

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How normalcy bias negatively impacts decision making

Normality bias can have several negative effects on decision-making.

Importantly, action can be delayed when action is needed. Leaders often fail to act quickly in the face of new threats and wait until the problem becomes undeniable. This delay can result in missed opportunities and avoidable losses.

This same bias can lead organizations to be underprepared by neglecting critical contingency plans, leaving them vulnerable when a crisis occurs.

Finally, it can encourage leaders to underestimate risks by downplaying potential impacts, which can lead to poor mitigation strategies and overexposures.

For example, many retailers underestimated the move to e-commerce until the pandemic forced them to accelerate their digital transformation efforts. Companies unprepared for this change struggled to remain competitive.

6 ways to overcome normalcy bias

Breaking free from normalcy bias requires intentional efforts and strategic interventions, including:

1. Use red team thinking. Red Teaming provides a structured approach to stress testing hypotheses, identifying blind spots, and evaluating alternative strategies. By simulating challenges and engaging in critical thinking exercises, organizations can counteract the complacency that normalcy bias fosters. for example, postmortem analysis It helps you anticipate potential pitfalls before implementing your plan.
2. Encourage diverse perspectives. Normalcy bias is often prevalent in homogeneous groups where everyone shares similar experiences and assumptions. Including diverse voices in the decision-making process, whether through cross-functional teams or external advisors, can challenge groupthink and expose hidden risks.
3. Scenario planning. Create and regularly update scenario plans for a variety of potential disruptions. By envisioning worst-case, best-case, and most likely scenarios, organizations can prepare for decisive action rather than reaction. For example, many energy companies use scenario planning to anticipate changes in regulatory policy or market trends.
4. Foster a culture of vigilance. Encourage employees to raise concerns and challenge assumptions without fear of retaliation. Leaders must model this behavior by being open to feedback and questioning their own beliefs. This culture of vigilance ensures that new risks are discovered early.
5. Leverage data and trend analysis. Leveraging data analytics and staying on top of industry trends can help businesses detect early signs of disruption. For example, monitoring customer behavior through predictive analytics can alert you to changes in demand before they fully materialize.
6. Conduct “what if” training. Regularly engage your team in “what if” exercises to imagine how your organization would respond to unlikely but impactful events. These exercises can reveal vulnerabilities and generate proactive solutions.

Normalcy bias is a subtle but powerful force that can undermine even the most well-intentioned leaders. In a rapidly changing world, the assumption that “business as usual” will continue is a recipe for failure. The key to overcoming normalcy bias is to develop a mindset that values ​​adaptability, critical thinking, and resilience. Organizations that embrace these qualities not only navigate disruption more effectively, but also discover hidden opportunities within disruption, whether that disruption is caused by another pandemic or other crisis. You can also.