UK coronavirus infection rates may be “increasing”

The rate of increase in coronavirus infections reflects the rapidly changing number of infections each day, which has changed slightly since the last week across the UK and may have increased. ..

Growth rates have seen a slight change between minus 4% and minus 1 and last week between minus 5% and zero, according to figures released by the Science Agency and the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage) on Friday. ..

On the other hand, the number of plays called R for the whole UK did not change between 0.8 and 1.

The R number represents the number of people who continue to be infected by each Covid-19-positive person.

In the UK, R is between 0.8 and 1, but Sage shows that he is not convinced that R is currently below 1 in the region.

The regional R value also seems to be close to 1.

R and growth estimates are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M), a subgroup of Sage.

It said: “We are beginning to see the early signs that these values ​​may be increasing.

“This has not yet been reflected in these estimates, as the data used to calculate R and growth reflects the situation a few weeks ago.”

The delay between the initial infection and the need for hospital care usually means that changes in the spread of Covid-19 may take a few weeks to be reflected in the estimate.

However, the model using Covid-19 test data with less time lag shows higher values ​​for R in the UK.

“Because of this, Sage is not confident that R is currently below 1 in the UK.

“Once we have a better understanding of our current situation, we hope to see changes in this transmission reflected in R and growth rates announced over the next few weeks.”

However, government officials and advisors said it is also important to recognize that these are estimates and that they have a high degree of uncertainty.

They said these figures were not very useful in determining epidemic status if the incidence was low and local outbreaks could have contributed to the variability in numbers.

In the eastern part of England, growth has changed from last week’s minus 4% to minus 1% and from minus 5% to minus 1%. The R number is 0.8-1.

In London, growth is between -4% and zero, last week between -4% and +1%. The R value of the capital is 0.8-1.

Midlands growth is minus 5% to minus 1%, compared to last week’s minus 3% to 0%. Its R value is 0.8-1.

In the northeast and Yorkshire, the growth rate has remained unchanged since last week, somewhere between minus 4% and 0. Its R value is 0.8-1.

The growth rate in the northwestern region is unchanged, between -3% and +1%. The R value here is 0.8 to 1.1.

In the southeast, growth is -5% to -1%, but last week it was -4% to zero. The R value in this region is 0.8 to 0.9.

Southwest growth has fallen slightly from last week’s minus 3% to plus 3% to minus 5% to plus 1%. Its R value is greater than 1 and the range is 0.8-1.

For the UK as a whole, growth was between -4% and 0% and last week it was between -3% and 0%.

The story continues

Commenting on the diagram, Dr. Daniel Lawson, a lecturer in statistical science at the Department of Mathematics at the University of Bristol, said:

“First, there is a lot of uncertainty in the data, which is very difficult to model.

“Second, the data is observed with a time lag, so we can know the past R certainly.

“R is very close to 1 and the combination of these uncertainties is likely to make R currently above 1 (but not yet)

Dr. Yuria Kirichko, a mathematics reader at the University of Sussex, said: “The heading values ​​for the R range haven’t changed since last week, but in all other parts of the UK except the Southeast, the upper bound of the R range is 1, or 1.1 for the northwest.

“There is uncertainty associated with estimating R-values, especially when the number of new infections is low, but the fact that the seven-day average of new daily infections has steadily increased since mid-July is The view that the R number is not less than 1 seems correct.

“What this really means is that the situation is fairly precipiceous and can develop very rapidly. That is to say that all attention should be taken by the public.”

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