“This is a dangerous virus.”

When the bird flu first attacked a dairy cow a year ago, it seemed that it could affect some isolated flocks and disappear quickly as if it appeared. Instead, viruses are infected with more than 900 and dozens of flocks, killing one, indicating no signs of declining.

Pandemic is still inevitable, and 12 or more experts said in an interview. However, a series of developments over the past few weeks indicates that the possibility is no longer remote.

Experts said that the echo of the dental guidelines, inadequate tests, and long delays in the release of data -the echo of the Miss steps in the COVID -19 pandemic is a wasteful opportunity to contain the occurrence.

In a symbolic example of confusion, the New York Times learned that some dairy cows in Aidaho, which were infected in the spring, showed their second mild symptoms in late autumn. In mid -January, the Ministry of Agriculture said that no new infectious diseases in Aidaho have been identified since October. But state authorities Publicly discussed calm cases in November。

Experts may welcome news to farmers that the second infectious disease causes more milder symptoms of cows. However, the reinfection suggests that viruses called H5N1 can circulate the farm indefinitely and create opportunities to evolve into more dangerous form -the “high -risk” scenario is the evolution of the university of the University of Pennsylvania. Louise Moncura, a scholar, said.

“It may be easy to fix the H5 of a group of dairy products without symptoms, and it can easily end the quick or easy detection,” said Dr. Monka.

It is impossible to predict whether viruses evolve the ability to spread among people. However, the worries are that if a bird flu finds a correct combination of genetic mutation, the occurrence may escalate immediately.

“I haven't been worried about the hill from the pack my bag and head yet, but there was more signals in the last 4-6 weeks that this virus has the ability to cause pandemic,” says Richard. Ta. Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Federal officials have slightly changed their tone when discussing the outbreak, and now emphasizes how fast the situation changes.

For the general public, H5n1 states that “the risk is lower than the other risks we are facing today.” But “100 %, it can change,” he said. “This is a dangerous virus.”

Health experts emphasize that Americans can take precautionary measures. Do not touch sick, dead birds or other animals. If you have a transparent symptom, it will be tested. Do not consume raw milk or meat or eat pets.

If a greater outbreak erupts, the stockpiling of the federal vaccine will hold millions of times, but the vaccine may need to be updated according to the evolved form of the virus. In either case, the authorities must scramble to make the population sufficient.

CDC is recommended Treatment by anti -virular stamifluHowever, the drug shows the drug. I do almost nothing To relieve the disease.

If it is confirmed that many experts emphasize concerns, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, who led the Federal Health Bureau, is a critic of the voice of Cobid vaccine. I said Bird flu vaccine “looks dangerous.”

Even if the second Trump administration has accepted the development of the vaccine, it is unknown how many Americans roll up the sleeves for shots, as the first administration went down. Influenza usually affects children and the elderly, and pandemic influenza can attack young adults most intensely. However, the distrust brought between COVID-19 may at least avoid preventive measures at first.

Evolving threat

Unlike the sudden arrival of a sudden arrival, the influenza virus usually begins in specific animal species or specific geographical areas.

When H5N1 appeared in East Asia almost 30 years ago, it is almost a sick bird. In the next few years, at least 940 people were infected, and almost all of them had continuous contact with infected birds. About half of those people have died.

However, when there was a virus in January 2022 Detected It is affected by wild aquatic birds in the United States More than 136 million Support commercial, backyard, wild birds, transmissions Egg price will rise。 He also attacked dozens of mammals, including cats, raccas, bears, and sea lions, which were kept in the wild.

For at least one year, H5n1 was infected with dairy cows and was not known to be susceptible to this type of influenza. Some cows have permanent effects, reducing milk production, Spontaneous abortion。

In 2024, the virus was infected with only one American a few years ago in 2022. All sources of these infectious diseases are known. One may have told someone at home the virus.

Many of these developments are classic steps for pandemic, Dr. James Roller, director of the Nebraska University Global Health Security Center. But he said, “If they really caused acceleration and amplification at the federal, state, and local levels, they just scoop their shoulders when each milestone passed.”

The first dairy group infection that appeared in Texas seemed to be decreasing last summer. However, in late August, California released his first lawsuit. The state of the state quickly rose and prompted Governor Gavin Newsom. Declare the emergency of public health In December.

“It was a kind of flag for me.” OK, this hasn't gone, “said Dr. Manisha Jutani, a member of the Connecticut State Public Health Bureau. “I felt like the tempo has increased over the past few months,” she said.

Some other recent events are raising alarms among experts. In early December, scientists set up in the lab. A single mutation Helped the virus to be infected more efficiently with human cells.

In the latter half of last year, two, a 13 -year -old Canadian girl and a resident of Louisiana aged 65 or older became seriously ill. Previously, most people infected with H5N1 did not experience severe symptoms. Louisiana patients who have been healthy and cared for sick and dead birds I died in early January。

The girl was so It will be placed in life support Due to organ failure, but ultimately recovered. The scientist still does not know how she was infected. Her only danger factor was obese.

Both patients are on a new version of viruses different from dairy cows and are now spreading to birds. In both individuals, the virus has acquired a mutation in the process of infection.

“We have obtained a new virus formed in the wild bird reservoir,” said Dr. Monka. “It has become difficult to handle all of various threats.”

Some experts are particularly worried that the virus appears to be a food source like raw milk. Raw pet food。 It was kept cat Have Dead In many states Promote recall At least one brand pet food and a new federal guidelines Pet food quality。

“I think the raw pet food for me is a very surprising thing,” said Dr. Jeanne Marzzzo, director of the National Institute of Allergic Infectious Diseases.

Low -temperature sterilization kills living viruses, like cooking meat at high temperatures. Nevertheless, Marrazzo states that neither procedure is perfect:

Defective response

Since the beginning of the occurrence, Federal officials have announced other measures to prevent or prepare pandemic. However, experts said that each had a deeply defective.

The U.S. Ministry of Agriculture was late to start a cow's H5N1 vaccine test, leaving stakeholders in Limbo. Dr. Marrazzo stated that the division had released genetic information from the virus sample, but did not say where and where it was collected. Details that help scientists track the evolution of viruses.

It is also unknown how many flocks are being infected or fight against infections for several months. In Aidaho, some flocks that were infected in the spring seemed to have recovered, but in November it showed a gentle symptom.

“There is no evidence of new infections or re -infections of the flocks that we have previously influenced by the data we have, but it is rather lacking clearance of the original infection,” USDA. Spokesman said in an email answer. However, outside experts said that the trajectory of the symptoms had suggested a second -round disease.

USDA program Test bulk milk It started in December -almost a year after the occurrence -not yet included Aidaho. Fascinating private companies can help the program move faster.

G Inkgo Bioworks, a company that cooperated with federal agencies during COVID PANDEMIC, has already evaluated about half of the national commercial milk supply for bacteria, antibiotics, and other substances.

It is easy to add H5n1 to the list, so why not add an assay to this infrastructure we have? “

Earlier this month, the Biden administration announcement Approximately one -third of new funds for monitoring, testing, and outreaches for farm workers will be $ 36 billion.

However, farm workers in some places like Texas Pan Handle do not yet know what bird flu is, how it is, and why they are important to them. Vessanie Alcouter, the director of the Worker Health Center research and public health programs, said.

As a result, many workers did not use protective equipment, such as milk parlors, which are believed to have viruses.

Human tests are spontaneous and infectious It is overlooked。 Few farmers have chosen to be tested for the immigration officer or their own employers.

“If you're not looking for it, you can't find it,” said Deborah Birks, White House Color Navirus response coordinator under Trump. “This is not related to rockdown or activity restrictions, which is to protect individual Americans by giving information to them.”