Parkinson's disease will affect 25 million people by 2050, research warns

A major new study, which is projected to affect more than 25 million people worldwide by 2050, encourages immediate action to tackle the growing neurological health crisis.

study: Predicting the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in 195 countries and 2050 territories: A modeling study of the global burden of disease research 2021. Image credits: PeopleImages.com / Yuri A / Shutterstock.com

A recent study published in British Medical Journal, Researchers conducted cross-country analyses based on sociodemographic factors to predict the global prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) by 2050.

Predict the global burden of PD

PD is the second most common neurodegenerative disease. Therefore, it is important to monitor regional, national and global trends in the prevalence of PD to guide public health strategies.

Several studies have predicted future prevalence of PD in European countries and in the US. However, few people predict the prevalence of PD in other countries and territories around the world. Previously, significant variation in PD prevalence was observed across age group, gender, region, and years, indicating the complexity associated with predicting future proportions of PD.

Although age is often associated with an increased risk of PD, lifestyle factors, environmental exposure, and access to health care are also involved in PD development. Sociodemographic indexes that capture important personal factors, including educational achievement, average income per capita and birth rates, are also significantly associated with the prevalence of PD.

About the research

The current study predicted the prevalence of PD in 2050 at regional, national and global levels using gender, age, year, and sociodemographic indexes. The researchers also identified a variety of factors that contributed temporally and spatially to the prevalence of PD.

The PD prevalence of 195 countries and territories between 2022 and 2050 was estimated by age, gender, and year. We estimated age, gender and positional prevalence of PDs using a stochastic Bayesian model averaging approach and Poisson regression.

Future prevalence was predicted by constructing three Poisson regression models and three new prevalence models by fitting the random walk model. These six models were then incorporated into the Bayesian model averaging framework, and the weightings assigned to each of the six models were then evaluated by studying performance in projecting withholding data.

Survey results

The number of people living with PD worldwide in 2050 was estimated at 25.2 million for all genders and ages compared to 2021. In 2050, it was predicted that every 100,000 people would be 267, 243 women, and 295 men would be in 2050.

The age-standardized prevalence of PD was predicted to increase by 55% to 216. Elevated PD, prevalence of all ages, and age-standardized prevalence are expected to slower pace.

The largest increase in PD cases is predicted to occur in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas Central and Eastern Europe were predicted to experience the smallest increase. The highest age-related prevalence increases in PD are predicted in South Asia, North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, but Australia and North America are expected to have the lowest rise in cases.

The age-standardized PD prevalence was estimated to increase with the sociodemographic index and peak of 0.8 between 2021 and 2050. Prevalence of all ages was predicted to be the highest among countries with advanced sociodemographic indexes in the fifth part of the distribution.

The increase in PD prevalence across all ages is expected to be the fifth highest in the sociodemographic index and the lowest in the fifth highest in the highest. Spain, China, and Andorra were predicted to have the highest prevalence of PD, whereas Somalia, Niger and Chad were predicted to have the lowest prevalence of PD.

The increase in age-dependentness in both sexes peaked between 85 and 89. In 2050, the prevalence of PD is predicted to be higher in men than in women of all age groups.

Between 2021 and 2050, changes in PD prevalence, population growth and population aging are expected to contribute to 3%, 20%, and 89%, respectively, contributing to an increase in the number of PD cases worldwide. If all individuals adhere to normal physical activity, the 2050 forecast for PD cases is reduced by 4.9%.

Conclusion

PD could pose a public health threat by 2050. The rise in PD cases is expected to affect men more than women living in countries that are worthy of the central sociodemographic index.

The findings highlight the need for ongoing research focused on developing new drugs, genetic engineering techniques and cell replacement therapies that can improve the prognosis and quality of life in PD patients. Additional research is also needed to identify other risk/protective factors associated with PD to ensure the accuracy of these predictions.