Research shows rapid testing and tracing systems can reduce R rates for Covid-19 infections by up to 26%

It has been claimed that rapid testing and follow-up may reduce coronavirus copy number (R rate) by up to 26%.

However, researchers at Imperial College London warn that testing alone is unlikely to result in a critical R value below 1 at current immunity levels.

That means other interventions, such as continued social distances, are still needed to limit the spread of coronaviruses, they say.

The R number represents the number of people who are most likely to get Covid-19 and infect others.

In this study, researchers on the Covid-19 response team at Imperial investigated the potential impact of various testing and isolation strategies on coronavirus infections.

They state that an effective testing and tracking system relies heavily on the scope of testing and the timeliness of contact tracking.

Studies have shown that 80% of cases and contacts are identified, and R-values ​​can be reduced by up to 26% if contact tracking and quarantine is immediate within 24 hours.

But the British test and trace system is currently below that, researchers claim.

Nicholas Glasley, professor of Imperial Public Health, said: “Effective testing is the key to controlling the coronavirus pandemic.

“We need to use tests to prevent infections in two ways: one to identify infected individuals and their contacts to reduce them through quarantine and quarantine, and another to detect outbreaks. To allow local lockdown to be applied as needed.

“Our results show that testing and tracing can help reduce the R number, but it needs to be effective and fast to do so.

“Testing and tracing alone are not enough to control infection in most communities, and R-values ​​below 1 require other measures.”

Last week, NHS test and trace numbers showed that in the 10 weeks after launch, it reached 81.5% of contacts and demanded self-separation, but not 18.5% of contacts.

Researchers say that an optimal testing strategy should include regular screening of high-risk groups such as health workers and social care workers during the duration of the infection.

Weekly coronavirus screening of these groups is estimated to reduce the contribution to SARS-CoV-2 infection by 23%. This is in addition to the reduction achieved by self-isolation following symptoms if results are obtained within 24 hours.

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Researchers have developed a mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the infectivity and sensitivity of the PCR swab test over time after infection.

It shows a 47% reduction in R if all individuals with Covid-related symptoms are self-separating and this is 100% effective in reducing anterior infection.

Dr. Margarita Ponsalor of the Imperial School of Public Health said:

“Regular screening of asymptomatic individuals in high-risk groups and contact- broadening of the population (test-trace-isolate) can reduce infections, but Covid-19 control these You can’t just rely on your strategy.

“In particular, the effectiveness of these strategies depends heavily on the timeliness of providing test results and the time to locate and quarantine contacts. In other words, to actually impact the infection, the test strategy should be appropriate. Must be carried out.”

– The study, published in Lancet Infections, was supported by the British Council for Medical Research.

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