Sweden bets on herd immune coronavirus strategy. Was it worth it?

Sweden’s coronavirus control strategy was an experiment bravely challenged by most other countries.

The national approach is more forgiving than the blockades imposed by neighboring countries, or indeed the world.

Sweden has elected to keep most schools and businesses open during the COVID-19 outbreak, instead of a mandatory curfew or suspension of operations.

However, this model was condemned especially in the days following the e-mail exchange of the country’s main epidemiologists was revealed at the beginning of the pandemic.

An email received by a Swedish journalist under the Freedom of Information Act in March asks Anders Tegnell if it would be acceptable if increased mortality in the elderly could lead to improved herd immunity. I showed that I could see.

“One point would be to keep the school open to reach the herd’s immunity faster,” Dr. Tegner wrote.

Although the mortality rate was too high, [Sweden] If I have time, I will follow the same route.”

Sweden’s mortality rate is among the worst in the world, but remains lower than in Europe, which has imposed more stringent measures, such as Italy, Britain and Spain.

Over 5,700 Swedish people have died since the beginning of the year, as seen in Australia, and health officials have since acknowledged that there are obvious obstacles to the preparation of nursing homes for the elderly.

The Swedish government has ordered an investigation into the problems of nursing homes, killing thousands after being exposed to COVID-19.

But a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Joakim Dilner, said the number of cases and deaths have dropped dramatically since the surge in infectious diseases earlier this year.

“As a result of these coercive measures, the reproductive rate of the infection has dropped dramatically,” he said.

Herd immunity is controversial within the scientific community

During the pandemic, Sweden was a Scandinavian pariah.

That approach was quite different from the containment strategies adopted in Norway, Denmark and Finland.

Still, Swedish life is still changing for many of its 10 million citizens, suggesting that immunologists can consider the strategy less relaxed and less rigorous.

The Swedish government has set some restrictions. Large gatherings were banned, and Swedish people were asked to avoid unnecessary trips, work from home, and isolate them if they were sick.

And unlike many European countries, which first closed their stores and then reopened in the summer, most of Sweden’s measures to control the infection remain the same.

“We have built a fairly open society on the basis of recommendations,” said Dillner.

“We haven’t really taken any strict steps, but it’s still clear that it worked.”

But within the scientific community, Professor Dillner says there is still “hot debate” about the strategies adopted.

Prioritizing the sick person rather than the extensive screening of health care workers was false in his view.

“Healthcare workers weren’t screened in homes for the elderly. At least in the scientific community, I think it’s upset,” he said.

“When we say “test, test, and test again,” we feel we should have. “

The authorities relied on the common sense of citizens

Earlier this year, the Swedish government claimed that its unique approach reflected the nature of the pandemic and awaiting a vaccine, calling it a “sprint rather than a marathon.”

Sweden’s Prime Minister Stephan Lofven said public health authorities are relying on “folk beds” to keep the health system from being overwhelmed.

By refusing more stringent measures, it was estimated that 40 percent of Stockholm’s population had achieved herd immunity by May.

Now, some research suggests that it will never happen.

About 15-20% of the population in the capital had developed antibodies, according to a paper published by the Journal of the Royal Medical Society.

The first author, Professor David Goldsmith, was critical of the Swedish approach.

“Frankly, I think it was naive to do nothing more from the beginning. [but] They claimed it was okay, and they seem very pleased with their reaction,” he said.

“They have ten times the mortality rate per million in the local countries, which is really their best comparison.”

He said antibodies were not found at high rates in asymptomatic patients, which means they are unlikely to be immune.

“I think they need to ask themselves. Was that really the right way to do it?” said Professor Goldsmith.

“I wouldn’t think so, especially if there was no herd immunity.”

However, Professor Dillner believes that some populations in Stockholm have a “great spread”, and his study shows that about 8 to 31% of Stockholm’s healthcare workers test positive for antibody tests. Suggests.

Has the Swedish strategy softened the financial impact?

Swedish public health officials argued that their strategy did not focus on economic easing, but many were watching whether the light blockade would reduce the economic impact of the pandemic there. It was

The economy for the April-June quarter fell 8.6%. This is the worst performance of decades.

But, like other Scandinavian countries, it hasn’t suffered as much as the larger European economy.

Andreas Oltmann, a professor of and behavioral economics at the University of New South Wales, said it was too early to determine whether the Swedish strategy was a success or a dangerous bet.

“At the moment, just looking at one indicator of mortality is completely unscientific and completely misleading,” he told ABC.

Instead, Professor Oltmann said a long-term assessment should take into account unemployment, corporate confidence, and the mental health of the Swedish population.

He believes that one of Sweden’s strengths is a strong public trust in health advice and a reduction in the risk of fatigue in the long run.

“Public health authorities are still very popular. Two out of three Swedish people seem to be happy with what they do.”

“Compliance with the recommendations of public health authorities in Sweden is incredibly high, around 80%.”

Professor Goldsmith agrees, saying that over the next few years, the different approaches adopted around the world will be fairly compared.

“Everyone really has all the answers and wants to know exactly what to do today,” he said.

“This coronavirus is an impressive enemy and should never be underestimated.”

In the short term, Dr. Tegner recently said rapid testing and contact tracking are key to the second phase of Sweden’s attempt to survive a pandemic.

Professor Dillner said many infectious disease specialists are closely watching whether Sweden can adequately address the second wave of autumn and winter in Europe.

“This is a big worry. No one knows what will happen in the future.”